No update for next 2 weeks

This blog will not be updated for the next 2 weeks due to personal and work commitments.

Dollar Index recovered

On the weekly chart, it broke lhf but gain was trimmed before closing.  It need to stay above 95.0 resistance to be positive.
Resistance at 95.0, TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 Sep 18

BDI moved higher from 1413 (21 Sep) to 1540 (28 Sep)
Harpex continues to move lower, from 548.08 (14 Sep) to 538.54 (21 Sep)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Sugar
• Orange Juice
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybeans
• Soybean Oil
• Natural Gas (1)
• Crude (1)
• Platinum (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 28 Sep 18

US markets closed mixed. On the weekly chart, Dow and S&P closed with an inside day, Nasdaq broke pwh while Russell broke pwl.  

China market will be closed this week for the holiday while 5 Oct, US will have NFP and unemployment rate data.

Dollar Index closed higher but resisted at 95.0.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

COT show Others (retailers) are buying up, need to be caution

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 26,627, 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around TLU11, 25,784, 25,649, 25,336, 24,481, 24,170

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,940, 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,874, 2,863, 2,825, 2,814, 2,786, 2,748, 2,710, 2,593

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,706, TLU7, 8,428

Potential support around 7,516, 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,708, 1,743, TLU3, 1,779

Potential support around 1,683, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

01 Oct, Mon

• Hong Kong and China holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) 
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

02 Oct, Tue

• India and China holiday
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Sep)

03 Oct, Wed

• China and Germany holiday.
• 0000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Sep) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

04 Oct, Thu

• China Holiday
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

05 Oct, Fri

• China Holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep) 

Dollar Index broke another support

On the weekly chart, it broke pwl and closed lower.
Expecting volatility with US interest rate decision on Thu.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 Sep 18

BDI moved higher from 1336 (14 Sep) to 1413 (21 Sep)
Harpex moved lower from 550.77 (07 Sep) to 548.08 (14 Sep)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee (1)
• Soybeans
• Soybean Oil (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Sugar

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)
• Crude (1)

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 21 Sep 18

US markets closed mixed this week. Dow and S&P created the historic high while Nasdaq and Russell closed lower.  On the last trading day of the week, Dow closed with a small +roc where the rest closed with a small roc.  Markets may pull back in short-term.

Dollar Index continues to pull back.  Watch out for US interest rate decision on 27 Sep, Thur 0200 Hrs (GMT +8) 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around 26,627, TLU11, 25,784, 25,649, 25,336, 24,481, 24,170

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,874, 2,863, 2,825, 2,814, 2,786, 2,748, 2,710, 2,593

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706, 8,428

Potential support around 7,516, 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,743, TLU3, 1,779

Potential support around 1,708, 1,683, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

24 Sep, Mon

• Australia, Japan and China holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index

25 Sep, Tue

• Hong Kong holiday
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)  

26 Sep, Wed

• 2200 US New Home Sales (Aug) 
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections     
• 0200 US FOMC Statement   
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference   
• 0500 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision      
• 0500 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement     
• 0600 New Zealand 0500 New Zealand 
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)  

28 Sep, Fri

• 0545 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Sep)
• 1630 UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) 

Dollar Index closed below support

On the weekly chart, it broke hlf and closed below 95.0 and TLU1.
On the daily chart, Dollar Index closed with an outside day.
Resistance at 95.0, TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Sep 18

BDI moved from 1490 (07 Sep) to 1336 (14 Sep)
Harpex moved from 568.06 (31 Aug) to 550.77 (07 Sep)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee (1)
• Soybeans
• Soybean Oil (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• Corn
• Sugar (1)

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 15 Sep 18

US markets closed higher.
BDI and Harpex continue to go lower.
Dollar Index broke support.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU11, 26,627, 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around 25,784, 25,649, 25,336, 24,481, 24,170

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,874, 2,863, 2,825, 2,814, 2,786, 2,748, 2,710, 2,593

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706, 8,428

Potential support around 7,516, 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,743, TLU3, 1,779

Potential support around 1,708, 1,683, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
17 Sep, Mon

• Japan holiday
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug) 

18 Sep, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

19 Sep, Wed

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
• 1200 Japan BoJ Press Conference   
• 1630 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug) 
• 2030 UK Building Permits (Aug)
• 2100 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

20 Sep, Thu

• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 1630 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug) 

21 Sep, Fri

• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)