Dollar Index broke new recent low

Dollar index broke new recent low.  On the weekly chart, it broke hlf.  Dollar index remains to be weak unless it can stay above 93.0 for few days
Resistance at TLD5, TLD2, 93.0, 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0
Support at 92.0, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Aug 17

BDI move lower from 1260 (18 Aug) to 1209 (25 Aug)
Harpex move higher from 486.66 (12 Aug) to 494.11 (19 Aug)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice
• Cocoa (1)

Neutral

• Coffee
• Sugar (1)
• Natural Gas (1)

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 26 Aug 17

Most markets closed higher for the week.

US markets recovered some of the losses and traded directionless. 
Harpex continues to go higher.
Dollar Index broke recent low.

Important week to watch out especially data to be released by US on Wed and Fri.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Nasdaq

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed with a small roc on Mon.  On Tue, US markets recovered some of the losses and remained directionless. 

Important week to watch out. On Wed, US will release ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and GDP data.  Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be released on Fri 

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLD1, TLU2, 22,027, 22,121, 23,462

Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,450, 2,480, TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,406, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,890, 5,952, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLD1, 1,389, 1,420, 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

21 Aug, Mon

• UK Holiday
• No important data

29 Aug, Tue

• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) 

30 Aug, Wed

• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

31 Aug, Thu

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Aug)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) 

01 Sep, Fri

• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Dollar Index closed above support

Dollar index pierce thru support and rebounded.  In the daily chart, dollar index edging higher.  In the weekly chart, dollar index is consolidating.  Dollar index need to maintain above 93 support for momentum to go higher.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 93.0, TLD5, TLD2, 92.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 19 Aug 17

BDI broke 1,000 mark from 933 (28 Jul) to 1260 (18 Aug)
Harpex continue to go higher from 470.25 (22 Jul) to 486.66 (12 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Cocoa (1)

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)

Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Oats
• Gold

Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 19 Aug 17

Most markets closed lower this week.
US markets broke hlf 2 ET while trend had started to turn down.
Dollar Index tested support and rebounded.
BDI broke above 1,000 mark.  Harpex continues to move higher.
Most commodities closed lower.

Not much important data is releasing this week.  

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• Nasdaq

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets broke hlf 2 ET on the daily charts.   While trend had started to turn down for some.  On the weekly chart, Russell tested 50 SMA. Not much important data to be released by the US this week.  

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 22,027, 22,121, 23,462

Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,450, 2,480, TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,890, 5,952, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, 1,420, 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

21 Aug, Mon

• No important data

22 Aug, Tue

• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 

23 Aug, Wed

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jul) 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

24 Aug, Thu

• 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jul)

25 Aug, Fri

• 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) 
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) 

No update of blog on 6 Aug and 13 Aug

Due to work and personal commitment, no update on the blog for these 2 weeks.

Here are the COT charts

Download Commodities COT