Dollar Index tested support

Dollar Index rebounded, broke lhf and sell down continues.  It tested 93.0 and TLD2 support.
Various countries will be reporting their Manufacturing PMI this week.  Watch out for Fri US Nonfarm payroll and unemployment data
Resistance at TLD5, 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 93.0, TLD2, 92.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 29 Jul 17

BDI closed at 933 (28 Jul) from 964 (20 Jul)
Harpex surged more than 5% to close at 470.25 (22 Jul) from 445.80 (15 Jul)

Summary
Energy and Metals closed higher while soft commodities closed mixed.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas 

Neutral

• Coffee  (1)
• Cocoa (1)
• Platinum (1)

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Wheat
• Oats
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 29 Jul 17

Most markets closed higher while US markets closed mixed.  Dow created a new historic high.
Harpex surged 5% in a week.
Dollar Index rebounded, broke lhf and sell down continues.

This week various countries will report Manufacturing PMI.  On Fri, US will release Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate data.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None
  

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Dow broke lhf and created a new historic high. S&P and Nasdaq closed with a small roc.  Russell created new historic high but failed to sustain and closed with a -roc.

Corporate earning continue to come in, Fri Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,462

Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,890, TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

31 Jul, Mon

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul) 
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 

01 Aug, Tue

• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
• 1230 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 
• 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement   
• 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
• 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul) 
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1700 EUR Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   

02 Aug, Wed

• 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Jul) 
• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

03 Aug, Thu

• 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jul) 
• 1900 GBP BoE Inflation Report  
• 1900 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)   
• 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes     
• 1930 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks     
• 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

04 Aug, Fri

• 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)   
• 2030 USD Employment Change (Jul) 
• 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul)

Dollar Index may have technical rebound

Dollar Index continues to go lower as expected.  Technical rebound may come soon.  Watch out for FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision on Thur 0200 Hrs.
Resistance at TLD5, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD2, 92.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 22 Jul 17

BDI closed at 964 (20 Jul) from 900 (14 Jul)
Harpex closed at 445.80 (15 Jul) from 435.96 (08 Jul)

Summary
Most soft commodities and metals closed higher while Energy closed lower.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas 

Neutral

• Coffee  (1)
• Cocoa (1)

Up Trend

• Platinum (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Wheat
• Oats
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 22 Jul 17

Most markets closed mixed.
US markets closed higher except for Dow.

Dollar Index continues to go lower and may have technical rebound. 

Watch out for the corporate earning during this reporting season.  On Thu 0200 Hrs, FOMC Statement and US Interest rate decision.  On Fri, US and Canada will release GDP data. 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed higher except for Dow on the weekly chart.  On the daily chart, US markets broke hlf on the last day of the week.  
Corporate earning, Thur FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision and Fri US GDP are the potential factors to move the markets.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 23,462

Potential support around 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,890, TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

24 Jul, Mon

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)    
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun)

25 Jul, Tue

• 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 
• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 

26 Jul, Wed

• 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jun)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

27 Jul, Thu

• 0200 USD FOMC Statement
• 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 2030 USD Durable Goods Orders (Jun)
• 2030 USD Good Trade Balance

28 Jul, Fri

• 2000 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (May) 
• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Dollar Index broke hlf

Dollar Index broke hlf on weekly the chart and closed below 95 on Fri.  No recovery in sight yet.
Resistance at  Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3, 97.3, 98.3
Support at TLD3, TLD5, 94.0, TLD2

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 15 Jul 17

BDI back to 900 (14 Jul) from 822 (07 Jul)
Harpex lower to 435.96 (08 Jul) from 439.54 (01 Jul)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher while Grains closed mixed.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas 

Neutral

• Coffee  (1)
• Cocoa (1)
• Platinum

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Wheat
• Oats
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 15 Jul 17

Markets closed higher across the board.  Nasdaq, ChinaA50 and Hong Kong rallied more than 3%.  Dow and S&P closed at historic high.  Reporting season just around the corner.
No recovery in sight for Dollar Index.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke lhf on the weekly chart.  Dow and S&P closed at historic high. Dow formed an outside day in the weekly chart.  Moving forward reporting season just around the corner.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,462

Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,890, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

17 Jul, Mon

• 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)

18 Jul, Tue

• 0645 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)

19 Jul, Wed

• 2030 USD Building Permits (Jun)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

20 Jul, Thu

• 0930 AUD Employment Change (Jun) 
• 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)   
• 1100 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)     
• 1400 JPY BoJ Press Conference
• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1945 EUR Deposit Facility Rate
• 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference

21 Jul, Fri

• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

Dollar Index rebounded after testing support

Dolalr Index rebounded after testing trend channel support.
In the weekly chart, it closed with an inside day.  To maintain the momentum, it must not break and close below 95 for more than a week.
Resistance at  TLU8, 96.3, 97.3, 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLD5, TLD3, TLD2

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 08 Jul 17

BDI closed lower to 822 (07 Jul) from 901 (30 Jun)
Harpex edge higher to 439.54 (01 Jul) from 438.35 (24 Jun)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower while Grains continues to close higher.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Coffee  (1)
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas 
• Gasoline
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Corn
• Cocoa (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Wheat
• Oats
• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average