Dollar Index continues to be resisted

Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above again.  In the weekly chart, it formed an inside day.   It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Jun 17

BDI close higher from 851 (16 Jun) to 870 (23 Jun)
Harpex lower from 443.72 (10 Jun) to 439.54 (17 Jun)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)
• Coffee  (1)
• Cocoa
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Wheat
• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 24 Jun 17

Most markets closed lower.  In the weekly chart, US markets closed higher with -roc for Dos and S&P..
BDI closed higher while Harpex continues going down.
Dollar Index continues to be resisted at 97.3.
Wed, US Goods Trade Balance and US GDP data on Thu

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed mixed in the daily chart.  In the weekly chart, us markets closed higher.   Dow and S&P closed with -roc, while Nasdaq and Russell closed with +roc.  Nasdaq broke lhf on the weekly chart.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462

Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,722, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

26 Jun, Mon

• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) 

27 Jun, Tue

• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

28 Jun, Wed

• 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)      
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

29 Jun, Thu

• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

30 Jun, Fri

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jun)
• 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)

Dollar Index failed to hold

Dollar Index rebounded and broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above before closing for the week.  In the weekly chart, an outside day is formed with a small roc.  It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 17 Jun 17

BDI edge higher from 849 (09 Jun) to 851 (16 Jun)
Harpex lower again from 458.92 (03 Jun) to 443.72 (10 Jun)

Summary
Most metals, coffee and sugar closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)
• Coffee
• Cocoa
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Gold

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 17 Jun 17

Most markets closed lower.  US markets closed mixed, no clear direction.  A quiet week ahead, not many important data.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious.
Harpex continues to decline.  Metals closed lower.
Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold before closing.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed mixed.  Dow made new historic high, Nasdaq continue to pull back, S&P and Russell formed inside day in the weekly chart.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious especially increase buying interest in Others while a decrease in Dealer.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462

Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,722, TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

19 Jun, Mon

• No important data

20 Jun, Tue

• 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

21 Jun, Wed

• 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (May)  
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

22 Jun, Thu

• 0500 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0500 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 

23 Jun, Fri

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (May)

Dollar Index recovered

Dollar Index broke pwl and recovered with a +roc.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 10 Jun 17

BDI moved higher from 830 (02 Jun) to 849 (09 Jun)
Harpex continue to move lower from 483.97 (27 May) to 458.92 (03 Jun)

Summary
Energy continues to close lower, soft commodities closed higher while metals closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar (1)
• Coffee
• Cocoa
• Orange Juice
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 10 Jun 17

Markets closed mixed.  Nasdaq created a new historic high and tumbled down broke hlf, recovered some losses before closing.  S&P formed an outside day on the daily chart.

Energy continues to close lower, soft commodities closed higher. 

Dollar Index broke pwl and recovered with a +roc.

15 Jun will be an important day.  Starting at 0200Hrs, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference, Statement and Economic Projections.  In the afternoon, SNB Interest Rate Decision with Press Conference follow by BoE Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes in the evening.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed mixed.  Nasdaq created new historic high and tumbled down broke hlf, recovered some losses before closing.

S&P formed an outside day on the daily chart.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462

Potential support around 21,099, TLU5, TLU11, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,722, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

12 Jun, Mon

• Australia Holiday
• No important data

13 Jun, Tue

• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) 
• 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (May)

14 Jun, Wed

• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 
• 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) 
• 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (May)
• 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (May) 
• 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

15 Jun, Thu

• 0200 USD FOMC Economic Projections
• 0200 USD FOMC Statement
• 0200 USD FOMC Press Conference
• 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0645 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 AUD Employment Change (May) 
• 1530 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
• 1530 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 
• 1530 CHF SNB Press Conference
• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1900 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) 

16 Jun, Fri

• 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
• 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 USD Building Permits (May)

Dollar Index broke support support

In the weekly chart, formed an outside day with -roc.  Dollar Index may test DT channel again before technical rebound.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 03 Jun 17

BDI pull back sharply from 912 (26 May) to 830 (02 Jun)
Harpex pull back from 500.37 (20 May) to 483.97 (27 May)

Summary
Energy continue to close lower, while metals continue to close higher, the rest closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar (1)
• Coffee

Neutral

• Cocoa  (1)

Up Trend

• Corn (1)
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average