Dollar Index failed to overcome resistance

Dollar Index broke lhf tested few resistance (101.5, TLD5, TLU6), failed to overcome them and closed below them. Inside day is formed on the weekly chart.
Resistance at TLD5, 101.5, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at  100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Feb 17

BDI recovered from 741 (17 Feb) to 875 (24 Feb)
Harpex move higher from 325.335 (11 Feb) to 330.40 (18 Feb).   The worst may be over for container shipping.

Summary
Most commodities continue to close lower except Energy edge higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Wheat
• Crude
• Cotton
• Silver

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Feb 17

Markets closed mixed.  US markets closed higher except for Russell.  Dollar Index tested resistance and failed to overcome.  BDI and Harpex continue going higher. The worst may be over for container shipping.  Most commodities closed lower.
US GDP data on Tue, President Trump will speak on Tue night (US Time).  Various countries will report Manufacturing PMI data this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US closed higher except for Russell.
Russell formed outside day on the weekly chart

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU4, TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, TLU1, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
27 Feb, Mon

• 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)

28 Feb, Tue

• 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)   

01 Mar, Wed

• USD U.S. President Trump Speaks
• 0830 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1700 EUR German Unemployment Change (Feb) 
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
• 2300 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision    

02 Mar, Thu

• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Feb)  
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb) 
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Dec) 

03 Mar, Fri

• 1730 GBP Services PMI (Feb)
• 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 

04 Mar, Sat

• 0200 USD Fed's Yellen Speech 

Dollar Index pull back

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart but failed to close above it.
Dollar Index also tested resistance TLU6 and 101.5.
Resistance at TLD5, 101.5, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at  100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Feb 17

BDI recovered 702 (10 Feb) to 741 (17 Feb)
Harpex move from 323.84 (04 Feb) to 325.335 (11 Feb)

Summary
Commodities reversed from last week, most closed lower while Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Cotton
• Silver

Neutral

• Copper

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 18 Feb 17

Most markets continued to close higher with dollar index pulling back.  US markets continue to create the new high.  Harpex continues to recover higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets continue to create the new high.  
Russell broke and closed above consolidation range.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU4, TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, TLU1, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
20 Feb, Mon

• US and Canada Holiday
• No important data

21 Feb, Tue

• 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

22 Feb, Wed

• 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)
• 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Jan)

23 Feb, Thu

• 0300 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

24 Feb, Fri

• 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 USD New Home Sales (Jan) 

Dollar Index rebounded

Dollar Index broke out and closed above TLD4.  On the weekly chart, formed an inside day.  If can break lhf on the weekly chart and close above it.  USD may continue the bullish tone.  Traders will be watching Fed Chair Yellen testifies on Tue and Wed looking for hints on next rate hike.
Resistance at TLU6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at  100.3, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD4, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 11 Feb 17

BDI slid from 752 (03 Feb) to 702 (10 Feb)
Harpex continue to move higher from 322.35 (28 Jan) to 323.84 (04 Feb)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher except Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Cotton
• Silver

Neutral

• Copper

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 11 Feb 17

Most markets closed higher.  US markets (except Russell) created a new historic high. Dollar Index recovered with an inside day on weekly chart after tested trend channel support.  BDI continue to weaken while Harpex strengthening.    
The coming week, various countries will report GDP and CPI data. Fed Chair Yellen will testify on Tue and Wed.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets broke lhf in the weekly chart.  DOW, S&P and Nasdaq created new historic high.  Russell consolidating since Dec 2016 and testing strong resistance.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU3, 1,519
Potential support around TLU1, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Feb, Mon

• 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

14 Feb, Tue

• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 
• 1800 EUR EuroZone GDP (YoY)
• 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

15 Feb, Wed

• 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)
• 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jan)
• 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 
• 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   
• 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   
• 2300 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

16 Feb, Thu

0830 AUD Employment Change (Jan)
2130 USD Building Permits (Jan)
2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 

17 Feb, Fri

• 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 

Dollar Index tested trend channel support

Dollar Index tested 99.8 support and trend channel support, rebounded and closed with a doji.  It closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.  Closing below trend channel for 2-3 days may see more selling.  If can closed above TLD4 for 2-3 days, up trend may resume.
Resistance at TLD4, 100.3, TLU6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at  99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 04 Feb 17

BDI continue to slid from 827 (27 Jan) from 752 (03 Feb)
Harpex move higher from 320.56 (21 Jan) to 322.35 (28 Jan)

Summary
Most energy and metals closed higher while the rest are mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (2) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Gasoline
• Cotton
• Silver

Neutral

• Copper

Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 04 Feb 17

US and Europe markets closed higher while most Asia closed lower.  US markets had broke lhf on Fri and rallied but on the weekly chart is an inside day.
Dollar Index tested trend channel support and closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.  BDI continue to slide while Harpex recovering.  Not much important US data for the coming week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

In daily chart, US markets broke lhf on Fri and rallied.  On the weekly chart is an inside day.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
06 Feb, Mon

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

07 Feb, Tue

• 1130 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 1130 AUD RBA Rate Statement
• 2300 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
• 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Jan)

08 Feb, Wed

• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

09 Feb, Thu

• 0400 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

10 Feb, Fri

• 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) 
• 2130 CAD Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)