Dollar Index tested support

Dollar Index tested 99.8 support, rebounded and closed with a doji
Resistance at TLU6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at  100.3, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 28 Jan 17

BDI slid near 100 pt to 827 (27 Jan) from 925 (20 Jan)
Harpex continue moving higher to 320.56 (21 Jan) from 319.07 (14 Jan)

Summary
Despite the weakening of USD, most commodities still closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (2) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil
• Cotton
• Copper
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 28 Jan 17

Most markets closed higher after DOW, S&P and Nasdaq created a new historic high. Dollar Index weakened with most commodities closed lower.  Hong Kong market will be opened on Wed while China market will be opened on Fri.
This week heavy with US economy data from Wed onwards starting with ISM Manufacturing PM, FOMC Statement, US interest rate, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

DOW, S&P and Nasdaq broke out with new historic high.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2,19,440, TLU11, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,522
Potential support around 2,285, TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU1, 4,896, 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
30 Jan, Mon

• China, Hong Kong, Singapore holiday
• 2130 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) 
• 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

31 Jan, Tue

• China, Hong Kong holiday
• JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
• JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)  
• 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
• 1700 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 

01 Feb, Wed

• China holiday
• 0545 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 
• 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

02 Feb, Thu

• China holiday
• 0300 USD FOMC Statement
• 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Jan)
• 2000 GBP BoE Inflation Report

03 Feb, Fri

• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 GBP Services PMI (Jan)
• 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Dollar Index closed lower

Dollar Index continue to close lower and broke hlf on Fri
Resistance at TLU6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at 100.3, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 21 Jan 17

BDI did a slight improvement from 910 (13 Jan) to 925 (20 Jan)
Harpex continue to improve from 316.39 (07 Jan) to 319.07 (14 Jan)

Summary
Energy closed lower, Grains closed higher while the rest closed mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil
• Cotton
• Copper
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 21 Jan 17

Markets closed mixed this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed with small changed.  Nasdaq closed with doji on the weekly chart; show some form of weaknesses to go higher.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU2, TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around 19,440, TLU11, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around 4,896, 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

23 Jan, Mon

• 0700 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

24 Jan, Tue

• 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Dec) 

25 Jan, Wed

• 0830 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
• 2300 CAD BOC Rate Statement

26 Jan, Thu

• Australia Holiday
• 0545 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4) 
• 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 2300 USD New Home Sales (Dec) 

27 Jan, Fri

• China Holiday
• 0930 AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)
• 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 2130 USD Durable Goods Orders (Dec)

Dollar Index broke support

Dollar Index broke 101.5 support and tested TLU6.  
If dollar index unable to recover and close above 101.5 for 2-3 days, may see more selling ahead.
Resistance at 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at  TLU6, 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 14 Jan 17

BDI lower to 910 (13 Jan) from 983 (05 Jan)
Harpex recovered to close at 316.39 (07 Jan) from 314.00 (31 Dec 2016)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher except Energy which closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Crude
• Copper
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 14 Jan 17

Most markets continue to close higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets continue to consolidate except for Nasdaq hitting a new high.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU2, TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around 19,440, TLU11, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around 4,896, 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around TLU1, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
16 Jan, Mon

• US Holiday
• No important data

17 Jan, Tue

• 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 

18 Jan, Wed

• 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 
• 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Dec)  
• 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 
• 2300 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2300 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision

19 Jan, Thu

• 0015 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
• 0400 USD Fed's Yellen Speech
• 0830 AUD Employment Change (Dec) 
• 2045 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 
• 2130 EUR ECB Press Conference
• 2130 USD Building Permits (Dec) 
• 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 

20 Jan, Fri

• 0000 USD USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 0900 USD Fed's Yellen Speech
• 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

Dollar Index broke down

Dollar Index broke down from 2 weeks range bound and tested 101.5 support
Resistance at 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 101.5, 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3
* Adjusted Trend Channel to bigger band

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Jan 17

BDI closed at 983 (05 Jan 2017)
Harpex closed at 314.00 (31 Dec 2016) for the year 2016.

Summary
Coffee, Suage and metals closed higher.  Energy closed lower while grains are mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Crude
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 07 Jan 17

Most of the markets closed higher on the 1st week of 2017.  

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets had been moving sideway for past 4 weeks hitting into some form of resistance. If markets failed to break out and hold for 2-3 weeks, may see some selling especially COT show lesser buying interest and some even hit the selling zone.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, 19,440, TLU11, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU4, TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around 4,896, 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Jan, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• No important data

10 Jan, Tue

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2300 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)

11 Jan, Wed

• 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories

12 Jan, Thu

• No important data

13 Jan, Fri

• 1154 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)
• 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)