COT Update

COT for US Indices
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S & P

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

COT for Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Crude
• Cotton
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dollar Index closed with a small roc

Dollar Index closed with a small roc in the weekly chart.  Show some weakness after running up for 2 weeks.
Resistance at 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Nov 16

BDI pull back from 1257 (18 Nov) to 1181 (25 Nov)
Harpex lower from 317.32 (12 Nov) to 216.49 (19 Nov)

Summary
Energy closed higher while the rest are mixed

COT
Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.

Indices Performance Chart - 26 Nov 16

Markets continue to close higher, some closed higher by 3%.

Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.

US markets broke historic high except Nasdaq.  US GDP data on Tue, Job data on Wed and Fri while ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thu.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 19,440, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU4, TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367, TLD4, 18,189, 17,829

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, 2,081

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389
Potential support around Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
28 Nov, Mon

• No important data

29 Nov, Tue

• 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) 

30 Nov, Wed

• 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) 
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories

01 Dec, Thu

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)   
• 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

02 Dec, Fri

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Nov) 
• 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 
• 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)   
• 2130 CAD Employment Change (Nov) 

Dollar Index broke trend channel

Dollar Index continues to rally and broke trend channel support
Profit taking may kick in anytime, buy when pull back
Resistance at 101.5, 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Above resistance are estimate figures using barchart.com
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

Using the free charting service from ChartNexus can view for a period 3 years, therefore to obtain the resistance level, will need to fall back to another service provider as a reference guide.

Zoom in for the period 1997 to 2004

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Various pairs near to the resistance and support level

Commodities Update - 19 Nov 16

BDI continue to close higher from 1045 (11 Nov) to 1257 (18 Nov)
This is pretty unusual from the norm when compare to last few years pattern.
Harpex lower from 318.56 (05 Nov) to 317.32 (12 Nov)

Summary
Energy and grains closed higher while metals, coffee and sugar closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa

Neutral

• Rough Rice
• Natural Gas

Up Trend

• Wheat

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Cotton
• Copper

Neutral

• Crude

Down Trend

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 19 Nov 16

Most markets managed to close higher

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• Nasdaq

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 



US markets (except Russell) moving within a small range for the week .
DOW closed the week with small roc, Nasdaq closed with an inside day,
Russell continues with the rallied.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, 19,440, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367, TLD4, 18,189, 
17,829, 17,600, 17,271

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU5, 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116,2,102,2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLU2, 4,347, 4,271 

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389
Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213, 1,185, 1,1641,137, 1,114, 1,082

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
21 Nov, Mon

• No important data

22 Nov, Tue

• 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)   
• 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Oct)   

23 Nov, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2300 USD New Home Sales (Oct) 
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories

24 Nov, Thu

• US Holiday
• 0200 FOMC Minutes
• 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)   
• 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) 

25 Nov, Fri

• 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)

COT Update

COT for US Indices 
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

COT for Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Soybean Oil
• Cotton
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dollar Index tested support and rebound

Dollar Index tested support (TLU9) and rebound.  
An outside day is formed in weekly chart, closed within trend channel.
Resistance at  TLU6, 99.8, 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 97.3, TLU7, TLD3, TLD2, 96.3, TLU9, 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 12 Nov 16

BDI up strongly rebounded from 855 (04 Nov) to 1045 (11 Nov)
Harpex lower from 318.56 (05 Nov) to 319.39 (29 Oct)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.

Indices Performance Chart - 12 Nov 16

Asia closed lower while Europe and US markets closed higher.

Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.

US markets formed an outside day in weekly chart.  Dow and Russell broke recent high.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, 19,440, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367, TLD4, 18,189, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU5, 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLU2, 4,347, 4,271 

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,287, 1,296, TLU1, TLU5, 1389
Potential support around 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213, 1,185, 1,1641,137, 1,114, 1,082

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
14 Nov, Mon

• 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)

15 Nov, Tue

• 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 1800 EUR Euro-zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
• 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

16 Nov, Wed

• 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 
• 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Oct)
• 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories

17 Nov, Thu

• 0830 AUD Employment Change (Oct)
• 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2130 USD Building Permits (Oct)
• 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 

18 Nov, Fri

• 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

Dollar Index broke support

Dollar Index broke hlf in weekly chart and closed below trend channel support.  
Next strong support is at 96.3
Resistance at 97.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3, TLU6
Support at TLU7, TLD3, TLD2, 96.3, TLU9, 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 05 Nov 16

BDI rebounded to 855 (04 Nov) from 798 (27 Oct)
Harpex continue to lower to 319.39 (29 Oct) from 322.70 (22 Oct)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower except metals.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Natural Gas
• Platinum
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Soybean Oil
• Cotton

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 05 Nov 16

Most markets closed lower across the board.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• S&P

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Due to US election uncertainty, US markets broke down to 3 months low.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLD5, 18,189, TLU11, 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4
Potential support around 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,102, 2,116, 2,129, 2,137, TLU4, TLU5, 2,161, 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around  2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,682, 4,722, 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,640, 4,537, TLU2, 4,347, 4,271 

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213, TLU2, 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4)
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, 1,082, 1,049

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
07 Nov, Mon

• End of Daylight saving for US
• No important data

08 Nov, Tue

• U.S. Presidential Election
• 1021 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Oct)
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)

09 Nov, Wed

• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Oct) 
• 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories

10 Nov, Thu

• 0400 NZD Interest Rate Decision 

11 Nov, Fri

• No important data