Dollar Index pull back

Dollar Index tested higher and pull back to closed with -roc for the week.
Looking at Trend channel for first support.
Resistance at TLU6, 99.8, 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 97.3, TLU7, TLD3, TLD2, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 29 Oct 16

BDI broke 800 mark and lower to 798 (27 Oct) from 842 (21 Oct)
Harpex lower to 322.70 (22 Oct) from 324.77 (15 Oct)

Summary
Metals and soft commodities closed higher while energy closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Wheat
• Platinum
• Palladium

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Soybean Oil
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• Cotton

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 29 Oct 16

Most markets closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• S&P

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow and S&P formed another inside day in the weekly chart, continue to be directionless. Russell broke down 1213 strong support and formed an outside day on the weekly chart.
Manufacturing data on Tue, FOMC statement on Thu morning, NFP job data on Fri.
US presidential election will increase volatility to the markets as the stories unfold.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,189, TLU11, 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4

Potential support around TLD5, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P

Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,137, TLU4, TLU5, 2,161, 2,187, 2,285

Potential support around 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq

Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538

Potential support around 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell

Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 1,213, TLU2, 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287

Potential support around 1,185, 1,164, 1,137, 1,114, 1,082

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
31 Oct, Mon

• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 EUR GDP (YoY) (Q3)

01 Nov, Tue

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1100 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
• 1100 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
• 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 1130 AUD RBA Rate Statement
• 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference  
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

02 Nov, Wed

• 0545 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Oct)
• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Oct)
• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

03 Nov, Thu

• Japan Holiday
• 0200 USD FOMC Statement
• 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 1730 GBP Services PMI (Oct)
• 2000 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2000 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

04 Nov, Fri

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2030 CAD Employment Change (Oct)
• 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Oct)

Dollar Index continue to move higher

Dollar Index broke lhf and continue to move higher within trend channel.
Trend channel support is one of the important support for any pull back.
Resistance at TLU6, 99.8, 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 97.3, TLU7, TLD3, TLD2, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 22 Oct 16

BDI lower from 892 (14 Oct) to 842 (21 Oct)
Harpex continue to lower from 326.01 (08 Oct) to 324.77 (15 Oct)
Overall this is not a good sign, with year end festival season coming, no sign of picking up.

Summary
Commodities closed mixed this week.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Rough Rice
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Sugar
• Soybean Oil
• Crude
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 22 Oct 16

Most markets closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• S&P

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets formed inside day in weekly chart, continue to be directionless.
Most likely

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,189, TLU11, 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4
Potential support around TLD5, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU4, 2,161, 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, TLU5, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around TLU2, 1,213, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
24 Oct, Mon

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

25 Oct, Tue

• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 
• 2330 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 

26 Oct, Wed

• 0830 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Sep)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

27 Oct, Thu

• 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

28 Oct, Fri

2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 

Dollar Index continue to rally

Dollar Index moving higher back to trend channel.

96.3 is an important support level to hold for any pull back.
Resistance at 98.3, TLU6, 99.8, 100.3
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 97.3, TLU7, TLD3, TLD2, 96.3, TLU9, 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude (wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 15 Oct 16

BDI pull back below 900 mark to 892 (14 Oct) from 921 (07 Oct)
Harpex down again from 328.50 (01 Oct) to 326.01 (08 Oct)

Summary
Energy, soft commodities closed higher while metals continue to go lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend

• Corn
• Rough Rice
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Oil
• Crude
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 15 Oct 16

Most markets closed lower this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• S&P

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets broke hlf in weekly chart, direction still unclear.  Most likely the direction will be clearer after US Presidential Election, 8 Nov 2016   US reporting season and news related to US Presidential Election will bring volatilities.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,189, TLU11, 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4
Potential support around TLD5, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,137, TLU5, TLU4, 2,161, 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around 2,129, 2,116, TLU5, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,213, 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out (SG Time)

17 Oct, Mon

• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Sep)

18 Oct, Tue

• 0545 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 

19 Oct, Wed

• 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q3) 
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 USD Building Permits (Sep)
• 2200 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

20 Oct, Thu

• 0830 AUD Employment Change (Sep) 
• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 
• 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep) 

21 Oct, Fri

• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

Dollar Index broke out

Dollar Index rallied and broke lhf on the weekly chart.
Tested the trend channel and pull back.  To continue with the positive momentum, need to stay above 96.3
Resistance at 96.3, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at TLD9, 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 08 Oct 16

BDI recovered from 875 (30 Sep) to 921 (07 Oct)
Harpex edge back to 328.50 (01 Oct) from 328.09 (24 Sep)

Summary
Energy continues to close higher, Metals closed lower while others are mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (2) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Wheat

Neutral

• Corn
• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Oil
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 08 Oct 16

Markets closed mixed this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• S&P

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.  The potential explosive movement may be coming after directionless for 2 consecutive weeks. Not many important data till Thu.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU11, 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4
Potential support around 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,161, 2,187, 2,285 
Potential support around TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, TLU5, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816, 4,722, 4,769, 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around 1,213, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
10 Oct, Mon

• Canada, Hong Kong and Japan holiday
• No important data

11 Oct, Tue

• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 

12 Oct, Wed

• No important data

13 Oct, Thu

• 0200 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1039 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Sep)
• 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision 
• 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories  

14 Oct, Fri

• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
• 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Sep) 
• 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index continues to be directionless.  On a weekly chart, it closed with a doji, inside day.
Resistance at 96.3, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at TLD9, 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA