Dollar Index tested 95 support

Once again US Dollar Index tested 95.0 level.  It hovered along TLU7.  Need to close above TLU7 for 2-3 days for more upside.  TLD1 remain to be an important support for retracement
Resistance at 96.3, TLU6, 97.3, TLD2, 98.3
Support at TLU7, 95.0, TLD1, 94.0, TLU8, 93.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 28 May 16

BDI lower to 606 (27 May) from 625 (20 May)
No change on Harpex at 359.98 (21 May)

Summary
Most metals continue to close lower, Energy closed higher and most soft commodities closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Cocoa
• Oats
• Copper
• Palladium

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend 

• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Lumber
• Heating Oil

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Trying to break out in daily chart but still within weekly Diff.  No clear direction for the 3rd week.
Potential resistance around 5,463, 5,528, 5,617, TLU2, 5,735
Potential support around TLU3, 5,316, TLU6, 5,266, 5,138, 5,025

Japan 
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
In daily chart, broke out on Wed but still within the symmetrical triangle (TLD6 and TLU6).  Waiting for clearer signal, else will trade short term.
Potential resistance around 17,328, TLD6, 17,890, 18,565
Potential support around 16,896, TLU4, 16,581, TLU5, TLU6, 15,418

Hong Kong
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT 
Break out of daily Diff and closed above Diff for 3 days, short term is positive.  If unable to close above TLU2 for more than 3 days, watch TLU5 for support.  
Potential resistance around TLU2, TLD5, 21,080, TLU4, 21,682, 22,409
Potential support around  20,011, 19,073, TLU3, TLD4, 18,051, TLD1, 16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT 
Broke lhf in weekly chart.  Need to break and stay above TLD5 for more than 3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 8,637, 9,006, TLD5, TLU4, 9,195, TLU2, TLD4, 9,658
Potential support around 8,102, TLD3, TLU3, 7,479, TLD2, 6,727

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke out from consolidation and directionless on last 2 days of the week.  Due to Brexit referendum on 23 Jun, market may be getting more volatile with various news.  TLD2 will be the resistance line to watch out.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429, 6,578, TLU2, 6,809
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, 6,010, TLD1, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke and closed above TLU1 for 3 days, short term is positive.  May test Apr high.  If can break and close Apr high, may see testing TLD3.
Potential resistance around  10,653, TLD3, 10,930, 11,147
Potential support around 10,189, TLU3, TLU1, 9,924, TLD2, 9,679, 9,468

India
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Rallied for 3 consecutive days after testing the trend upper channel on Tue.  May watch for entry on pull back.
Potential resistance around 8,223, 8,435, 8,578, 8,705
Potential support around TLU2, 8,085, 7,991, 7,929, 7,817, 7,682


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
30 May, Mon

• UK and US holiday
• No important data 

31 May, Tue

• 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (May)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (May)

01 Jun, Wed

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 0930 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)   

02 Jun, Thu

• 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)   
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (May)
• 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

03 Jun, Fri

• 1630 GBP Services PMI (May)  
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (May) 
• 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) 

Indices Performance Chart - 28 May 16

All markets closed higher this week. 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (1) (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed higher more than 2% and broke lhf in weekly chart.  S&P and Nasdaq need to continue to close above TLD3 for more upside,  Russell may on  the way to test box resistance 1,213 if can break Apr high.  Starting from Wed, will have manufacturing and job data release from China, Europe and US.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD5, 18,189, TLU4, 18,637, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 17,829, TLD4, 17,600, TLD3, 17,271, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  2,102, 2,116, TLU4, 2,129, 2,137, TLU5
Potential support around TLD3, 2,081, TLD5, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,537, 4,640, 4,682, TLU1, 4,772
Potential support around TLD3, 4,347, TLD5, TLU2, 4,271, 4,193

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 1,164, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, TLD4, TLD6, 1,082, 1,049

Dollar Index broke 95 resistance

Tested and closed above 95 strong resistance.  Any retracement must not break TLD1 (for more than 3 days) to continue with the upside
Resistance at TLU7, 96.3, TLU6, 97.3
Support at 95.0, TLD1, 94.0, TLU8, 93.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 21 May 16

BDI rose from 600 (13 May) to 625 (20 May)
No change on Harpex at 359.98 (14 May)

Summary
Metals continue to close lower, Energy clsoed higher while soft commodities are mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Copper

Neutral

• Wheat
• Palladium

Up Trend 

• Oats
• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Lumber
• Heating Oil
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Directionless for 2 weeks, a new weekly diff is formed.
Potential resistance around 5,463, 5,528, 5,617, TLU2, 5,735
Potential support around TLU3, 5,316, TLU6, 5,266, 5,138, 5,025

Japan 
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke out on Tue, resisted by TLU4, after that trading Directionless for 2 weeks. In weekly chart, 3rd week of inside day.  Forming symmetrical triangle, TLD6 and TLU6. COT buying interest is not that positive too.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 16,896, 17,328, TLD6, 17,890
Potential support around  16,581, TLU5, TLU6, TLD4, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Trading below diff for 2 weeks, no clear direction. TLU3 may be tested again.  If TLU3 fail to hold, may test current year low at 18,051
Potential resistance around 20,011, TLU2, TLD5, 21,080, TLU4, 21,682, 22,409
Potential support around  19,073, TLU3, TLD4, 18,051, TLD1,  16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT 
Directionless for this week.  If TLU3 fail to hold, current year low may be tested.
Potential resistance around 8,637, 9,006, TLD5, TLU4, 9,195, TLU2, TLD4, 9,658
Potential support around 8,102, TLD3, TLU3, 7,479, TLD2, 6,727

UK
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Consolidating between 6,070 and 6,237.  If break down from consolidation, may see testing TLU3 again.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429, 6,578, TLU2, 6,809
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, 6,010, TLD1, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Resisted by TLU1.  If break down recent low, may see testing 9,468 (Apr low)
Potential resistance around 9,924, TLU3, TLU1, 10,189, 10,653
Potential support around TLD2, 9,679, 9,468, 9,216, 8,928

India
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Continue to hover along down trend upper channel.  In weekly chart, an outside day bar is formed, potential of a new trend.
Potential resistance around 7,817, 7,929, 7,991, 8,085, TLU2, 8,223
Potential support around 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216, TLD2, 6,887


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
23 May, Mon

• Canada holiday
• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (May)  

24 May, Tue

• 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) 
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Apr)  

25 May, Wed

• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) 
• 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision   
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

26 May, Thu

• 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) 
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) 
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) 

27 May, Fri

• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

Indices Performance Chart - 21 May 16

Asia and Europe closed higher while US closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (increased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (1) (no change)
• Russell (increased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed lower with +roc on weekly chart (except for DOW).  A new diff is formed on daily chart.  Monitoring for break lhf in weekly chart if economy data are above forecast, may see some upside.  This week will have economy data, GDP and Manfacturing from various Europe and US.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around TLD3, 17,600, TLD4, 17,829, TLD5, 18,189

Potential support around  17,271, 17,083, TLD2, TLD1, 16,745

S&P

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 2,061, TLD5, 2,081, TLD3, 2,102, 2,116

Potential support around 2,045, 2,028, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930

Nasdaq

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around TLD3, 4,537, 4,640, TLU1, 4,682, 4,772

Potential support around 4,347, TLD5, TLU2, 4,271, 4,193, TLD2, TLD4, 4,089

Russell

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 1,114, TLD4, 1,137, TLU2, 1,164

Potential support around  TLD6, 1,082, TLD5, 1,049, 1009

Dollar Index closed above 94

Tested TLU8, TLD6, 94.0 for few days and broke lhf on Fri.
95.0 will be a strong resistance to overcome.  For more upside, need to stay above 95.0 for 2-3 days.
Resistance at 95.0, TLU7, 98.3
Support at TLD1, 94.0, TLU8, TLD6, 93.3, 92.5, 91.5

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 14 May 16

BDI retraced to 600 (13 May) from 631 (06 May)
Harpex edge higher for another week at 359.98 (07 May) from 358.74 (30 Apr)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher while metals lower

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend 

• Oats
• Wheat
• Natural Gas
• Palladium (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Lumber
• Heating Oil
• Gold
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Trying to break out of Diff but failed and back to trading within Diff.

Potential resistance around TLU3, 5,463, 5,528, 5,617

Potential support around 5,316, 5,266, TLU6, 5,138, 5,025, TLD5, TLU4, TLD4, 4,833

Japan 

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Broke out on Tue, resisted by TLU4 and trade directionless

Potential resistance around  16,581, TLU4, 16,896, 17,328, TLD6, 17,890

Potential support around  TLU5, TLU6, TLD4, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong

Daily UT, Weekly DT 

A new diff is formed, consolidated within Diff, broke down 20,011 and Diff.  TLU3 may be tested again.  If TLU3 fail to hold, may test current year low at 18,051

Potential resistance around 20,011, TLU2, TLD5, 21,080, TLU4, 21,682, 22,409

Potential support around  19,073, TLU3, TLD4, 18,051, TLD1,  16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares

Daily UT, Weekly DT 

Broke down from new diff formed, TLU3 may be tested.  Similar to HK, if TLU3 fail to hold, current year low may be tested.

Potential resistance around 8,637, 9,006, TLD5, TLU4, 9,195, TLU2, TLD4, 9,658

Potential support around 8,102, TLD3, TLU3, 7,479, TLD2, 6,727

UK

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Back to consolidating range between 6,070 and 6,237.  If break down from consolidation, may see testing TLU3 again.

Potential resistance around 6,125, 6,297, 6,429, 6,578, TLU2, 6,809

Potential support around 6,070, 6,010, TLD1, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Broke down from TLU3, if unable to recover, may see testing 9,468 (Apr low)

Potential resistance around TLD2, 9,924, TLU3, TLU1, 10,189, 10,653

Potential support around 9,679, 9,468, 9,216, 8,928

India

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Consolidating and hover along down trend upper channel.

Potential resistance around 7,817, 7,929, 7,991, 8,085, TLU2, 8,223

Potential support around 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216, TLD2, 6,887

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
16 May, Mon

• Germany and Switzerland holiday
• No important data   

17 May, Tue

• 0930 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr) 
• 2030 USD Building Permits (Apr) 
• 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 

18 May, Wed

• 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)  
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

19 May, Thu

• 0200 USD FOMC Minutes
• 0930 AUD Employment Change (Apr) 
• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)  
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)  

20 May, Fri

• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)    
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Apr) 

Indices Performance Chart - 14 May 16

Another week of closing lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (1) (no change)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed lower again.  Dow and S&P hit the trend line resistance and pull back. Overall US markets are weak in short term.  After 3 weeks of closing lower with -roc, time for rebound to close with a +roc?

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD3, 17,600, 17,829, TLD4, 18,189
Potential support around  17,271, TLD2, 17,083, TLD1, 16,745

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,061, TLD5, 2,081, TLD3, 2,102, 2,116
Potential support around 2,045, 2,028, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,347, TLD5, TLD3, 4,537, 4,640
Potential support around TLU2, 4,271, TLD4, TLD2, 4,193, 4,089

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,114, TLD6, TLD4, 1,137, TLU2, 1,164
Potential support around TLD4, 1,082, 1,049, 1009

Looking to short Gold

Looking to short gold small if break hlf, 
1) hlf 2ET
2) COT buying interest for dealer extreme -ve while others extreme +ve
3) below Diff

Size small because is UT

Dollar Index tested Aug 2015 low

Tested 92.5 (Aug 2015 low) and rebounded.  Broke lhf and diff RL and met with 94.0 resistance. USD strengthened despite below expectation on job data.
Resistance at TLD6, 94.0, TLD1, TLU7,  98.3
Support at TLU8, 93.3, 92.5, TLD5, 91.5, 90.6

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 May16

BDI sharp pull back to 631 (06 May) from 703 (29 Apr)
Harpex edge higher from 357.91 (23 Apr) to 358.74 (30 Apr)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower this week while USD strengthened

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• None

Neutral

• Oats

Up Trend 

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Lumber
• Heating Oil
• Gold
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average