Dollar Index closed above 99.8

Dollar Index edge higher to close above resistance 99.8.
Resistance at 100.3
Support at 99.8, TL6, 98.4, 97.0, TL1

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA 

Commodities Update - 28 Nov 15

BDI rebound to close at 581 (27 Nov) from 498 (20 Nov)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed for this week

COT
** Due to the Federal holiday observed on 11 Nov 15, COT Data will be updated on 18/19 Nov 15 (SG Time)

Indices short term support and resistance

This coming Tue to Fri will have important data, especially on Tue and Fri

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD3 on Mon and retraced with new Diff formed.  ROC is getting larger (-> on clear direction) from Wed to Fri and hover around weekly Diff SL.
Potential resistance around 5,266, TLD3, 5,316, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, TLU2, 5,025, TLD2, TLD1

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Range bound since last week between 19,740 and 20,052.
Closed below TLU3 and 19,740 for 2-3 days will bring more selling in short term
Potential resistance around 20,052, TLD1, 20,619, 20,900
Potential support around TLU3, 19,740, 19,092, 18,565, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD4 but failed to close above for more than 2 days, made a false break out on Thur and broke hlf on Fri to sell down
Potential resistance around TLD2, 22,409, TLD4, 23,540
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD2 but failed to close above for more than 2 days and broke hlf 2ET on Fri
Potential resistance around  TLD1, TLD2, 10,182, 10,711, TLU1
Potential support around 9,658, TLU2, 9,195, 8,637

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke out from Symmetrical triangle and closed above.  If next week can continue to close above TLD2, will see more upside.
Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,489, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around TLD2, 6,297, TLD1, TLU2, 6,125, 6,070

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Retraced and broke lhf 2ET on Wed to continue the run.  Need to stay above 11,147 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 11,532, 11,774, 11,994
Potential support around 11,147, 10,930, TLD2, TLU3, 10,653

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Still in consolidation mode between 7,929 and 7,682.  Need to stay above TLU1 for 2-3 days for upside to continue.
Potential resistance around 7,929, TLU1, 7,991, 8,085, 8,223, TLD1
Potential support around 7,817, TLU2, 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
30 Nov, Mon

• 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

01 Dec, Tue

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  

02 Dec, Wed

• 0830 AUD GDP (YoY) (Q3) 
• 0830 AUD GDP (MoM) (Q3) 
• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Nov)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2150 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)  
• 2300 CAD Interest Rate Decision 

03 Dec, Thu

• 1730 GBP Services PMI (Nov)
• 2045 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

04 Dec, Fri

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 CAD Employment Change (Nov)
• 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Nov)

Indices Performance Chart - 28 Nov 15

Most markets closed lower except for Europe markets closed higher

** Due to the Federal holiday observed on 26 Nov 15, COT Data will be updated on 02/03 Dec 15 (SG Time)

US Markets broke hlf on Fri in daily chart.  On weekly chart, closed with a Doji (except for Russell)

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
New diff is formed,  broke hlf on Fri
Potential resistance around 17,829, TLU5, 18,189, TLU6, 18,367
Potential support around TLD1, 17,600, TLU4, 17,271

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
New diff is formed,  broke hlf on Fri
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 2,102, 2,116, TLD3, 2,129, 2,137
Potential support around  TLU3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, TLD2

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Broke hlf on Fri
Potential resistance around 4,722, TLU7, TLU3
Potential support around 4,682, TLU5, 4,640, TLU4, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Broke hlf on Fri, closed with a hammer on daily chart.
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around 1,185, 1,164, TLD1, 1,137

Dollar Index tested 99.8

Dollar Index tested 99.8 and retraced.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3
Support at 98.4, TL6, TL1, 97.0

Latest Fed meeting minutes point to Dec Rate rise but interestingly, Currencies and Dollar Index COT seem to tell USD maybe weakening (Use for reference only, trade using Trend)

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 21 Nov 15

BDI broke below 500 mark closed the week at 498 (20 Nov) at all time low (10 yrs low).  I only managed to get 10 years chart from CNBC web site (The BDI chart below copyright belong to CNBC).

Summary
Commodities closed mixed for various category

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal (1)
• Lumber
• Gasoline
• Natural Gas
• Copper
• Palladium
• Platinum

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica (1)

Up Trend

• Wheat (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
 

Indices short term support and resistance

This week will have important GDP data from Europe and US.

Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Best performer for this week among the selected indices.
New Diff formed and and closed with doji, may be pulling back after such a  run.
Potential resistance around 5,266, 5,316, TLD3, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, TLU2, 5,025, TLD2, TLD1

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
New Diff formed and resisted by new Diff,
Potential resistance around 20,052, TLD1, 20,619, 20,900
Potential support around 19,740, 19,092, TLU3, 18,565, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed with broke lhf 2ET.  Need to stay above TLD4 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 23,540, 23,969, TLU1, 24,892
Potential support around TLD4, 22,409, TLD2, 21,682, 21,080

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Similiar to Hong Kong, new diff is formed with broke lhf 2ET.  Need to stay above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 10,711, TLU1, 11,080, 11,366
Potential support around TLD2, 10,182, TLD1, 9,658, TLU2, 9,195,

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New Diff is formed and outside day on Mon.  Resisted by TLD2.  Forming Symmetrical triangle, TLD2 and TLU2.  Watch for potential break out or break down.
Potential resistance around  TLD2, 6,429, 6,489, 6,578
Potential support around 6,297, TLD1, 6,125, 6,070, TLU2, 6,010

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
A new Diff is formed.  Overcome and stay above TLD2 for 3 days, weekly chart also formed outside day.  Look bullish, the run may continue.  Short term support at TLU3
Potential resistance around 11,147, 11,532, 11,774, 11,994
Potential support around TLD2, 10,930, 10,653, TLU3, TLU2

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
In consolidation mode between 7,929 and 7,682.  Need to stay above TLU1 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 7,929, TLU1, 7,991, 8,085, 8,223, TLD1
Potential support around 7,817, TLU2, 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216
 
Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
23 Nov, Mon

• Japan holiday - Labour Thanksgiving Day
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Oct)   

24 Nov, Tue

• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)
• 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)  

25 Nov, Wed

• 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2300 USD New Home Sales (Oct)

26 Nov, Thu

• US holiday - Thanksgiving Day
• 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

27 Nov, Fri

• US holiday closed early after Thanksgiving Day
• 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Indices Performance Chart - 21 Nov 15

Markets recovered after last week pull back.  Australia is the best performer, closed near to 5% higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (increased for 3rd week)
• Russell (increased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  


US Markets broke lhf on Tue (except for S&P broke lhf on Mon) and overcame few resistance levels.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
New diff is formed on Tue
Potential resistance around TLU5, 18,189, TLU6, 18,367
Potential support around 17,829, TLD1, 17,600, TLU4, 17,271

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
New diff is formed on Tue
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 2,102, 2,116, TLD3, 2,129, 2,137
Potential support around  TLU3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, TLD2

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
New diff is formed on Tue
Potential resistance around 4,722, TLU7, TLU3
Potential support around 4,682, 4,640, TLU5, TLU4, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
New diff is formed on Tue
Potential resistance around TLD1, 1,185, TLU1, 1,213, 1,240
Potential support around 1,164, 1,137, TLD2, 1,114, TLU2, 1,082

COT (Commitments of Traders)

Reminder, the information is as of 10 Nov 2015 (US TIme)

Indices
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (increased for 2nd week)
• Russell (decreased for few weeks)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

*Dow and Nasdaq buying interest are below 70

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica
• Soybean Meal
• Gasoline
• Natural Gas
• Copper

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Oats
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Raw Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 
 

Dollar Index continue to stay above 98.4

Dollar Index closed lower after last week run up but continue to stay above 98.4
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3
Support at 98.4, TL6, TL1, 97.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 14 Nov 15

BDI broke below 600 mark closing the week at 560 (13 Nov) from 631 (06 Nov) in a seasonal down trend coming to year end

Summary
Metals and Energy continue to trade lower while soft commodities are mixed.  Gasoline and Paladium down by 10% in a week

COT
** Due to the Federal holiday observed on 11 Nov 15, COT Data will be updated on 18/19 Nov 15 (SG Time)

Indices short term support and resistance

Markets had pulled back this week,  I will wait for long opportunity when support is tested especially trend line support and break lhf

Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
New Diff formed and broke down from new diff on Fri.
Potential resistance around 5,025, TLU2, 5,138, 5,266, 5,316
Potential support around TLD2, TLD1, 4,833, 4,696, 4,601

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
New Diff formed and broke down from new diff on Fri.
Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052, TLD1, 20,619
Potential support around 19,092, TLU3, 18,565, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New Diff formed and tested TLD2 but failed to hold.
Potential resistance around 22,409, TLD2, TLD4, 23,540, 23,969
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Testing TLD2 but failed to close above.  Fri almost testing TLD1 (long term support trend line).  If can hold above for 2-3 days, may see some upside.
Potential resistance around 10,182, TLD2, 10,711, TLU1, 11,080
Potential support around TLD1, 9,658, TLU2, 9,195, 8,637

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke hlf 2ET and consolidating range on Thu.
Potential resistance around 6,125, TLD1, 6,297, TLD2, 6,429
Potential support around 6,070, TLU2, 6,010, 5,894

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Failed to overcome TLD2 and broke down from Diff SL on Thu.
Potential resistance around 10,930, TLD2, 11,147, 11,532, 11,774
Potential support around 10,653, TLU2, TLD1, 9,924

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Failed to rebound from TLU1, seem like may going to test DT upper channel
Potential resistance around 7,817, 7,929, TLU1, 7,991
Potential support around 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
16 Nov, Mon

• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Oct) 
• 1815 ECB President Draghi Speaks 

17 Nov, Tue

• 0830 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

18 Nov, Wed

• 2130 USD Building Permits (Oct) 

19 Nov, Thu

• 0300 FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
• 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

20 Nov, Fri

• 1600 ECB President Draghi Speaks
• 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)  

Indices Performance Chart - 14 Nov 15

Finally the markets are pulling back this week.  China A50 pull back as much as 5%.

** Due to the Federal holiday observed on 11 Nov 15, COT Data will be updated on 18/19 Nov 15 (SG Time)

This week is a 2ET on hlf on daily chart and broke pwl.  Looking at pull back may continue, TL support may provide potential level for rebound.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,271, TLU4, 17,600, TLD1, 17,829
Potential support around 17,083, TLU7, 16,503, 16,246

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,028, TLD2, 2,045, 2,061, TLU3
Potential support around  1,996, 1,973, TLU4, TLD1, 1,930

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,537, TLU4, TLU5, 4,640
Potential support around TLU1, 4,347, TLD1, 4,271, TLU6, 4,193

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,164, TLD1, 1,185, TLU1, 1,213
Potential support around 1,137, TLD2, 1,114, TLU2, 1,082

Dollar Index broke 98.4 resistance

Dollar Index continue to strenghten after unemployment rate also fell to 5% and better than expected Nonfarm Payrolls
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3
Support at 98.4, TL6, TL1, 97.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Nov 15

BDI continue to lower to 631 (06 Nov) from 721 (30 Oct).  Seasonal trend BDI will be lower end of the year.

Summary
Most commodities are trading lower

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica
• Gasoline
• Lumber

Up Trend

• Wheat

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Crude
• Raw Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

 

 

 

 

Indices short term support and resistance

 

Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
New Diff created.  Currently supported by weekly Diff SL
Potential resistance around 5,266, 5,316, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, TLU2, 5,025, 4,950, 4,900

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT 
Break out from Diff after trading within Diff for a week.
Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052, TLD1, 20,619
Potential support around 19,092, TLU3, 18,565, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Daily MA turning up. New Diff formed, need to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around TLD2, 23,969, 24,892, 25,571
Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Quite similar to Hong Kong.  Daily MA turning up. New Diff formed, need to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around TLD2, 10,711, TLU1, 11,080, 11,366
Potential support around 10,182, TLD1, 9,658, TLU2, 9,195

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Consolidating between 6253 and 6489 level for past few weeks.  Need to close above 6489 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLD2, 6,429, 6,489, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around 6,297, TLD1, 6,125, 6,070

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Trade higher, resisted by TLD2.  Need to trade above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLD2, 11,147, 11,532, 11,774
Potential support around 10,930, 10,653, 10,272, TLU2, 9,924

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke hlf and a new Diff is formed.  Potential rebound at TLU1.  Failing to rebound, it may test DT upper channel
Potential resistance around 7,991, 8,085, 8,223, TLD1, 8,435
Potential support around 7,929, TLU1, 7,817, 7,682, 7,538

 
Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Nov, Mon

• None

10 Nov, Tue

• Singapore - Deepavali
• 1000 CNY CPI (YoY) (Oct)

11 Nov, Wed

• Holiday India - Diwali
• 1330 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)  
• 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)
• 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Oct)

12 Nov, Thu

• Holiday India - Diwali-Balipratipada
• 0830 AUD Employment Change (Oct) 

13 Nov, Fri

• 1500 GBP German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)