As per my last Forex posting (30 Aug 15) to monitor some of the major pairs, potential trade may be coming, watch for it
USDCHF
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Testing upper band of symmetrical triangle, potential for a breakout. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,
EURUSD
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Tested and closed below lower band of ascending triangle. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,
GBP/USD
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Forming symmetrical triangle, monitor for potential break down
Dollar Index on Tue and Wed was inside day of Mon (19 Oct). On Thur, ECB’s Draghi hints at more QE in Dec while PBOC lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, these 2 news causes Dollar Index to broke few resistance levels when closed on Fri.
Resistance at TL1, 98.4
Support at 97.0, TL6, 96.3, TL7
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI hedge higher from 754 (16 Oct) to 774 (23 Oct)
Summary
Most commodities closed lower after USD surge against most currencies.
COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Coffee Arabica
- Natural Gas
- Gasoline
- Wheat (1)
Neutral
Up Trend
- Orange Juice
- Lumber
- Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Neutral
Down Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Most markets had formed a bottom around Aug period. Any pull back with lhf will be opportunity to go long but small to build up position.
Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Retraced lower and broke TL6. Formed outside day and broke lhf on Wed. Need to stay above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 5,440, 5,463, 5,500, 5,528, 5,617
Potential support around 5,316, 5,266, 5,138, 5,025
Japan
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Broke hlf on Mon and tested TL7, broke lhf on Wed, broke Diff on Thu.
19,200 is the week high for 24 Aug outside day on weekly chart, staying above 19,200 for 2-3 days will have more upside.
Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052, 20,619, 20,900
Potential support around 19,092, 18,565, 17,890, 17,328
Hong Kong
DT
Broke down from channel in the early week. On Fri, broke TL3 and closed within UT channel. Need to stay in the channel for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 23,969, 24,892, 25,571, 26,681
Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080, 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares
DT
Broke out of long term trend line (white color) on Fri. Need to stay above 2-3 days for more upside. Immediate support will be 10,711
Potential resistance around 11,080, 11,366, TL4, 11,821
Potential support around 10,711, 10,182, 9,658, 9,195
UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Formed outside day on wed, broke TL2 on Thu and formed a new Diff.
Need to continue to stay above TL2 and Diff for more upside
Potential resistance around 6,578, 6,809, 6,949, 7,047
Potential support around 6,429, 6,297, 6,125, 6,070
Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Broke TL1 on Thu and on Fri continue to rally back to UT channel.
Need to stay within the UT channel for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 10,930, 11,147, 11,532, 11,774
Potential support around 10,653, 10,272, 9,924, 9,679
India
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Need to break and closed above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578, 8,705 and 8,836
Potential support around 8,223, 8,085, 7,991 and 7,929
Key event to watch out (SG Time)
26 Oct, Mon
- New Zealand holiday
- 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
- 2200 USD New Home Sales (Sep)
27 Oct, Tue
- 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)
- 1730 GBP GDP (MoM) (Q3)
- 2030 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
- 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
28 Oct, Wed
29 Oct, Thu
- 0400 NZD Interest Rate Decision
- 1655 German Unemployment Change (Oct)
- 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 2200 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
- 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
- 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep)
30 Oct, Fri
- 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Oct)
- 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Aug)
31 Oct, Sat
- 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Most markets rallied on Thur and Fri after ECB’s Draghi hints at more QE in December on Thur and PBOC lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
Neutral
DT
- Dow (1) (increased for 1st week)
- S&P (1) (decreased for 2nd week)
- Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
- Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets broke hlf on Wed and rallied on Thu and the momentum continue to Fri, Nasdaq was about 50pts away from Jul 2015 high due to better than expected corporate earning. Dow and S&P was not too far historic high. Russell was the worse performer, formed an inside day in weekly chart. A pull back is always welcome before the run continue.
Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,829, 18,189, 18,367
Potential support around 17,600, 17,400, 17,271, 17,083
S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,102, 2,116, 2,129, 2,137
Potential support around 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, 1,996
Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,600, 4,640, 4,682
Potential support around 4,537, 4,500, 4,347, 4,271
Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, 1,082, 1,049
Dollar Index broke hlf again with data below expectation. On Fri, Dollar Index recovered and broke lhf with better than expected data. Resistance at 95.3 and TL6. Support at TL2, TL5 and 93.3.
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI continue to decline to 754 (16 Oct) from 809 (09 Oct)
Summary
Most commodities closed mixed except for energy pull back across the board
COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Natural Gas
- Neutral
- Wheat
- Orange Juice
Neutral
Up Trend
- Lumber
- Coffee Arabica
- Oats
- Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Neutral
Down Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Next week will have little economic data, most likely markets will be move by corporate earning.
Australia
DT
Fri closed with a doji around diff RL level. TL1 become the trend support for retracement. TL2 will be the resistance
Potential resistance around 5,316, 5,440, 5,463 and 5,528
Potential support around 5,266, 5,138, 5,025 and 4,833
Japan
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Broke Diff SL and recovered back to the "directionless" range. If can break out from Diff and stay above Diff for 2-3 days, potential for more upside
Potential resistance around 18,565, 19,092, 19,740 and 20,052
Potential support around 17,890, 17,328, 16,581 and 15,418
Hong Kong
DT
Testing upper range for few days and broke lhf on Thu. Now is back at the lower UT channel. Need to stay in the channel for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 23,000, 23,969, 24,892 and 25,571
Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares
DT
Similar to Hong Kong. Currently resisted by long term trend line (white color). Immediate support will be 10,182
Potential resistance around 10,711, 11,080, 11,366 and 11,821
Potential support around 10,182, 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637
UK
DT
A new diff is formed and closed with doji. Diff and TL2 will be used to gauge for strength. Need to continue to stay above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,578, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,297, 6,125, 6,070 and 6,010
Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
A new diff is formed. Resisted at TL1 and 10,653
Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147
Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216
India
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Broke out from the sideway, need to stay above the sideway range 2-3 days for more upside. Resistance at TL2
Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578, 8,705 and 8,836
Potential support around 8,223, 8,085, 7,991 and 7,929
Key event to watch out (SG Time)
19 Oct, Mon
- 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q3)
- 1000 CNY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
20 Oct, Tue
- 2030 USD Building Permits (Sep)
21 Oct, Wed
Hong Kong Holiday
- 0545 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
- 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision
22 Oct, Thu
- 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
- 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
- 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep)
23 Oct, Fri
- 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
Most markets continue to close slightly higher this week.
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
Neutral
DT
- Dow (1) (decreased for 1st week)
- S&P (1) (decreased for 1st week)
- Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
- Russell (decreased for 1st week)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets formed outside day on Tue, sell down on Wed. Markets rebounded and broke lhf on Thu. US markets weekly charts look pretty good (except for Russell) with 3 green consecutive candles, the markets had recovered more than 8% in 3 weeks. A minor pull back before continue to go higher will be good.
Dow
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,271, 17,400, 17,600 and 17,829
Potential support around 17,083, 16,503, 16,246 and 15,851
S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,045, 2,061, 2,102 and 2,116
Potential support around 2,028, 1,996, 1,973 and 1,930
Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,500, 4,537, 4,600 and 4,640
Potential support around 4,347, 4,271, 4,193 and 4,089
Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,185, 1,213, 1,240 and 1,274
Potential support around 1,164, 1,137, 1,114, 1,082 and 1,049
On last trading day, Dollar Index broke down 2 Oct inside day, TL6 and 95.3, it also broke down from symmetric triangle (TL6 and TL7) on Thur. If Dollar Index unable to recover for another 2-3 days, we may see Dollar Index testing 93.3 level again. COT buying interest is decreasing.
Resistance at 95.3 and TL6. Support at TL2, TL5 and 93.3
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI continue to slide from 889 (02 Oct) to 809 (09 Oct)
Summary
Metals and Energy closed higher this week while grains are mixed.
COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Orange Juice
- Natural Gas
- Platinum
- Lumber (1)
Neutral
Up Trend
- Coffee Arabica (1)
- Oats
- Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Neutral
Down Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Interestingly, all closed with doji. Time to be caution after running up for 2 weeks
Australia
DT
TL1 become the trend support for retracement. TL2 will be the resistance
Potential resistance around 5,266, 5,316, 5,440 and 5,463
Potential support around 5,138, 5,025, 4,833 and 4,696
Japan
Daily DT, Weekly UT
After gaped up on Mon and closed near to day high, the rest of the trading days are directionless. COT buying interest picking up, can monitor more closely when buying interest exceed 70.
Potential resistance around 18,565, 19,092, 19,740 and 20,052
Potential support around 17,890, 17,328, 16,581 and 15,418
Hong Kong
DT
Range bound between 22,409 and 20,011
Broke upper range bound 22,409 but look weak with -roc on last 2 days of trading.
Potential resistance around 23,000, 23,969, 24,892 and 25,571
Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke 10,182 strong resistance but closed with Doji for 2 days. Immediate important support will be 10,182
Potential resistance around 10,711, 11,080, 11,366 and 11,821
Potential support around 10,182, 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637
UK
DT
Broke pwh and range bound. Immediate support TL2 and TL4. Any retracement, need to stay above weekly TL1 for more upside
Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,578, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,297, 6,125, 6,070 and 6,010
Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Resisted at TL1 and 10653
Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147
Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216
India
DT
Gap up on Mon and Tue, trading side way. TL3 will be the support while TL2 will be the important resistance for more upside
Potential resistance around 8,223, 8,435, 8,578 and 8,705
Potential support around 8,085, 7,991, 7,929 and 7,817
Key event to watch out (SG Time)
12 Oct, Mon
13 Oct, Tue
- 1112 CNY Trade Balance
- 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Sep)
- 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
14 Oct, Wed
- 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Sep)
- 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug)
- 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Sep)
- 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Sep)
- 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
15 Oct, Thu
- 0830 AUD Employment Change (Sep)
- 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
- 2200 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
16 Oct, Fri
- 0545 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
- 1700 CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Most markets continue to close higher. Japan is the best performer for this week, higher by 5%.
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
Neutral
DT
- Dow (1) (increased for 1st week)
- S&P (1) (increased for 1st week)
- Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
- Russell (1) (increased for 2nd week)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets broke pwh, Fri closed with small candle show some weakness after running higher for 2 weeks
Dow
DT
Potential resistance around 17,083, 17,271, 17,400 and 17,600
Potential support around 16,503, 16,246, 15,851 and 15,376
S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,028, 2,045, 2,061 and 2,102
Potential support around 1,996, 1,973, 1,930 and 1,886
Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,500, 4,537 and 4,640
Potential support around 4,347, 4,271, 4,193 and 4,089
Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213 and 1,240
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, 1,082 and 1,049
Gold
DT
Gold broke pwl and recovered but resisted by weekly Diff RL and TL3. Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher Next resistance at 1,155.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,104, 1,072 and 995
Silver
DT
Silver broke pwl, pwh and TL4, washing some of the weak holder. Inside bar of 14 Sep in weekly chart. Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher. Next resistance at TL2
Potential Resistance 15.65, 16.15, 16.82 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.60, 14.22 and 12.70
Dollar Index try to stay above 96.3 resistance and failed, due to below expectation data from US. On Fri, it tested 95.3 and rebounded above the support. For more upside, need to closed above 96.3 for another 2-3 days. Resistance at TL1 and 97.0. Support at 95.3 and TL6
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI lower from 943 (25 Sep) to 889 (02 Oct)
Summary
Commodities closed mixed this week
COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Coffee Arabica (1)
- wheat
- Orange Juice
- Natural Gas
- Copper
- Platinum
- Lumber (1)
Neutral
Up Trend
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Neutral
Down Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
