As per my last Forex posting (30 Aug 15) to monitor some of the major pairs, potential trade may be coming, watch for it
USDCHF Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral Testing upper band of symmetrical triangle, potential for a breakout. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,
EURUSD Daily Neutral, Weekly DT Tested and closed below lower band of ascending triangle. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,
GBP/USD Daily DT, Weekly DT Forming symmetrical triangle, monitor for potential break down
Dollar Index on Tue and Wed was inside day of Mon (19 Oct). On Thur, ECB’s Draghi hints at more QE in Dec while PBOC lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, these 2 news causes Dollar Index to broke few resistance levels when closed on Fri. Resistance at TL1, 98.4 Support at 97.0, TL6, 96.3, TL7
BDI hedge higher from 754 (16 Oct) to 774 (23 Oct)
Summary Most commodities closed lower after USD surge against most currencies.
COT Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Down Trend
Coffee Arabica
Natural Gas
Gasoline
Wheat (1)
Neutral
Oats
Up Trend
Orange Juice
Lumber
Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Up Trend
None
Neutral
None
Down Trend
Crude
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Most markets had formed a bottom around Aug period. Any pull back with lhf will be opportunity to go long but small to build up position.
Australia Daily Neutral, Weekly DT Retraced lower and broke TL6. Formed outside day and broke lhf on Wed. Need to stay above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside Potential resistance around 5,440, 5,463, 5,500, 5,528, 5,617 Potential support around 5,316, 5,266, 5,138, 5,025
Japan Daily DT, Weekly UT Broke hlf on Mon and tested TL7, broke lhf on Wed, broke Diff on Thu. 19,200 is the week high for 24 Aug outside day on weekly chart, staying above 19,200 for 2-3 days will have more upside. Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052, 20,619, 20,900 Potential support around 19,092, 18,565, 17,890, 17,328
Hong Kong DT Broke down from channel in the early week. On Fri, broke TL3 and closed within UT channel. Need to stay in the channel for 2-3 days for more upside. Potential resistance around 23,969, 24,892, 25,571, 26,681 Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080, 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares DT Broke out of long term trend line (white color) on Fri. Need to stay above 2-3 days for more upside. Immediate support will be 10,711 Potential resistance around 11,080, 11,366, TL4, 11,821 Potential support around 10,711, 10,182, 9,658, 9,195
UK Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Formed outside day on wed, broke TL2 on Thu and formed a new Diff. Need to continue to stay above TL2 and Diff for more upside Potential resistance around 6,578, 6,809, 6,949, 7,047 Potential support around 6,429, 6,297, 6,125, 6,070
Germany Daily DT, Weekly UT Broke TL1 on Thu and on Fri continue to rally back to UT channel. Need to stay within the UT channel for 2-3 days for more upside Potential resistance around 10,930, 11,147, 11,532, 11,774 Potential support around 10,653, 10,272, 9,924, 9,679
India Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Need to break and closed above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside. Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578, 8,705 and 8,836 Potential support around 8,223, 8,085, 7,991 and 7,929
Most markets rallied on Thur and Fri after ECB’s Draghi hints at more QE in December on Thur and PBOC lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants) UT
None
Neutral
None
DT
Dow (1) (increased for 1st week)
S&P (1) (decreased for 2nd week)
Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets broke hlf on Wed and rallied on Thu and the momentum continue to Fri, Nasdaq was about 50pts away from Jul 2015 high due to better than expected corporate earning. Dow and S&P was not too far historic high. Russell was the worse performer, formed an inside day in weekly chart. A pull back is always welcome before the run continue.
Dow Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral Potential resistance around 17,829, 18,189, 18,367 Potential support around 17,600, 17,400, 17,271, 17,083
S&P Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 2,102, 2,116, 2,129, 2,137 Potential support around 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, 1,996
Nasdaq Daily Neutral, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 4,600, 4,640, 4,682 Potential support around 4,537, 4,500, 4,347, 4,271
Russell Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274 Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, 1,082, 1,049
Dollar Index broke hlf again with data below expectation. On Fri, Dollar Index recovered and broke lhf with better than expected data. Resistance at 95.3 and TL6. Support at TL2, TL5 and 93.3.
BDI continue to decline to 754 (16 Oct) from 809 (09 Oct) Summary Most commodities closed mixed except for energy pull back across the board
COT Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Down Trend
Natural Gas
Neutral
Wheat
Orange Juice
Neutral
None
Up Trend
Lumber
Coffee Arabica
Oats
Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Up Trend
Crude
Neutral
None
Down Trend
None
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Next week will have little economic data, most likely markets will be move by corporate earning.
Australia DT Fri closed with a doji around diff RL level. TL1 become the trend support for retracement. TL2 will be the resistance Potential resistance around 5,316, 5,440, 5,463 and 5,528 Potential support around 5,266, 5,138, 5,025 and 4,833
Japan Daily DT, Weekly UT Broke Diff SL and recovered back to the "directionless" range. If can break out from Diff and stay above Diff for 2-3 days, potential for more upside Potential resistance around 18,565, 19,092, 19,740 and 20,052 Potential support around 17,890, 17,328, 16,581 and 15,418
Hong Kong DT Testing upper range for few days and broke lhf on Thu. Now is back at the lower UT channel. Need to stay in the channel for 2-3 days for more upside. Potential resistance around 23,000, 23,969, 24,892 and 25,571 Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares DT Similar to Hong Kong. Currently resisted by long term trend line (white color). Immediate support will be 10,182 Potential resistance around 10,711, 11,080, 11,366 and 11,821 Potential support around 10,182, 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637
UK DT A new diff is formed and closed with doji. Diff and TL2 will be used to gauge for strength. Need to continue to stay above TL2 for 2-3 days for more upside. Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,578, 6,809 and 6,949 Potential support around 6,297, 6,125, 6,070 and 6,010
Germany Daily DT, Weekly UT A new diff is formed. Resisted at TL1 and 10,653 Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147 Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216
India Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Broke out from the sideway, need to stay above the sideway range 2-3 days for more upside. Resistance at TL2 Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578, 8,705 and 8,836 Potential support around 8,223, 8,085, 7,991 and 7,929 Key event to watch out (SG Time) 19 Oct, Mon
Most markets continue to close slightly higher this week.
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants) UT
None
Neutral
None
DT
Dow (1) (decreased for 1st week)
S&P (1) (decreased for 1st week)
Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
Russell (decreased for 1st week)
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets formed outside day on Tue, sell down on Wed. Markets rebounded and broke lhf on Thu. US markets weekly charts look pretty good (except for Russell) with 3 green consecutive candles, the markets had recovered more than 8% in 3 weeks. A minor pull back before continue to go higher will be good.
Dow Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Potential resistance around 17,271, 17,400, 17,600 and 17,829 Potential support around 17,083, 16,503, 16,246 and 15,851
S&P Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 2,045, 2,061, 2,102 and 2,116 Potential support around 2,028, 1,996, 1,973 and 1,930
Nasdaq Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 4,500, 4,537, 4,600 and 4,640 Potential support around 4,347, 4,271, 4,193 and 4,089
Russell Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 1,185, 1,213, 1,240 and 1,274 Potential support around 1,164, 1,137, 1,114, 1,082 and 1,049
On last trading day, Dollar Index broke down 2 Oct inside day, TL6 and 95.3, it also broke down from symmetric triangle (TL6 and TL7) on Thur. If Dollar Index unable to recover for another 2-3 days, we may see Dollar Index testing 93.3 level again. COT buying interest is decreasing. Resistance at 95.3 and TL6. Support at TL2, TL5 and 93.3
BDI continue to slide from 889 (02 Oct) to 809 (09 Oct)
Summary Metals and Energy closed higher this week while grains are mixed.
COT Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Down Trend
Orange Juice
Natural Gas
Platinum
Lumber (1)
Neutral
None
Up Trend
Coffee Arabica (1)
Oats
Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Up Trend
None
Neutral
Crude
Down Trend
None
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Interestingly, all closed with doji. Time to be caution after running up for 2 weeks Australia DT TL1 become the trend support for retracement. TL2 will be the resistance Potential resistance around 5,266, 5,316, 5,440 and 5,463 Potential support around 5,138, 5,025, 4,833 and 4,696
Japan Daily DT, Weekly UT After gaped up on Mon and closed near to day high, the rest of the trading days are directionless. COT buying interest picking up, can monitor more closely when buying interest exceed 70. Potential resistance around 18,565, 19,092, 19,740 and 20,052 Potential support around 17,890, 17,328, 16,581 and 15,418
Hong Kong DT Range bound between 22,409 and 20,011 Broke upper range bound 22,409 but look weak with -roc on last 2 days of trading. Potential resistance around 23,000, 23,969, 24,892 and 25,571 Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011
Hong Kong China H-Shares Daily Neutral, Weekly DT Broke 10,182 strong resistance but closed with Doji for 2 days. Immediate important support will be 10,182 Potential resistance around 10,711, 11,080, 11,366 and 11,821 Potential support around 10,182, 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637
UK DT Broke pwh and range bound. Immediate support TL2 and TL4. Any retracement, need to stay above weekly TL1 for more upside Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,578, 6,809 and 6,949 Potential support around 6,297, 6,125, 6,070 and 6,010
Germany Daily DT, Weekly UT Resisted at TL1 and 10653 Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147 Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216
India DT Gap up on Mon and Tue, trading side way. TL3 will be the support while TL2 will be the important resistance for more upside Potential resistance around 8,223, 8,435, 8,578 and 8,705 Potential support around 8,085, 7,991, 7,929 and 7,817
Key event to watch out (SG Time) 12 Oct, Mon
Japan and Canada Holiday
13 Oct, Tue
1112 CNY Trade Balance
1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Sep)
1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
14 Oct, Wed
0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Sep)
1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug)
1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Sep)
2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Sep)
2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
15 Oct, Thu
0830 AUD Employment Change (Sep)
2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
2200 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
Most markets continue to close higher. Japan is the best performer for this week, higher by 5%.
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants) UT
None
Neutral
None
DT
Dow (1) (increased for 1st week)
S&P (1) (increased for 1st week)
Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
Russell (1) (increased for 2nd week)
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
US markets broke pwh, Fri closed with small candle show some weakness after running higher for 2 weeks
Dow DT Potential resistance around 17,083, 17,271, 17,400 and 17,600 Potential support around 16,503, 16,246, 15,851 and 15,376
S&P Daily DT, Weekly Neutral Potential resistance around 2,028, 2,045, 2,061 and 2,102 Potential support around 1,996, 1,973, 1,930 and 1,886
Nasdaq Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 4,500, 4,537 and 4,640 Potential support around 4,347, 4,271, 4,193 and 4,089 Russell Daily DT, Weekly UT Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213 and 1,240 Potential support around 1,137, 1,114, 1,082 and 1,049
Gold DT Gold broke pwl and recovered but resisted by weekly Diff RL and TL3. Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher Next resistance at 1,155. Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293 Potential Support 1,104, 1,072 and 995
Silver DT Silver broke pwl, pwh and TL4, washing some of the weak holder. Inside bar of 14 Sep in weekly chart. Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher. Next resistance at TL2 Potential Resistance 15.65, 16.15, 16.82 and 17.55 Potential Support 14.60, 14.22 and 12.70
Dollar Index try to stay above 96.3 resistance and failed, due to below expectation data from US. On Fri, it tested 95.3 and rebounded above the support. For more upside, need to closed above 96.3 for another 2-3 days. Resistance at TL1 and 97.0. Support at 95.3 and TL6
COT Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Down Trend
Coffee Arabica (1)
wheat
Orange Juice
Natural Gas
Copper
Platinum
Lumber (1)
Neutral
Oats
Up Trend
Palladium
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Up Trend
None
Neutral
None
Down Trend
Crude
Note (1) COT Index >= 90 (2) COT Index <= 10 (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
