Dollar Index closed above 96.3

Dollar Index broke and closed above 96.3 resistance.  For more upside, need to closed above 96.3 for another 2-3 days.  Resistance at TL1 and 97.0.  Support at 95.3 and TL6, TL5.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude (wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Sep 15

BDI closed the week at 943 (25 Sep) from 960 (18 Sep)

Summary
Most soft commodities and energy closed higher while most metals lower, reversed from last week

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Sugar
• wheat
• Oats
• Natural Gas
• Lumber

Neutral

• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
 

Indices short term support and resistance

Sorry this segment will be temporary stop for a week due to I am sick

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
28 Sep, Mon

• Hong Kong Holiday
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)

29 Sep, Tue

• 1330 INR Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)   

30 Sep, Wed

• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Sep)
• 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)    
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jul)

01 Oct, Thu

• China Holiday
• Hong Kong Holiday
• 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   

02 Oct, Fri

• China Holiday
• India Holiday
• 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Sep)   
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)   
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Indices Performance Chart - 26 Sep 15

Most markets closed up to 4% lower.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• Dow (1) (decreased for 1st week)
• S&P (1) (decreased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
• Russell (1) (decreased for 3rd week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT

US markets moving in consolidation range and broke pwl.
Please ignore Nasdaq chart with a spike up, I believe there is an error with them system.
Next week US and Europe will have plenty of economy data, expect volatile movement while Hong Kong and China will be having holiday, therefore Asia trading time may not move much 

Dow
DT
Potential resistance around 16,503,17,083, 17,271 and 17,500
Potential support around 16,246, 15,851, 15,376 and 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,930, 1,973, 1,996 and 2,028
Potential support around 1,886, 1,820 and 1,737
Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,271, 4,347, 4,537 and 4,640
Potential support around 4,193, 4,089, 3,956 and 3,755

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,137, 1,164, 1,185 and 1,213
Potential support around  1,114, 1,082 and 1,049

Hu Li Yang (胡立阳) sharing sumamry

Here are some of the pointers from Hu Li Yang that I have summarized it from the talk I went before

1) Statistic based on 40 countries, typically

• the more challenging month for trading are Aug, Jul and Oct
• the more easier month for trading are Nov, Dec and Jan

2) When the markets recovering after the crash, the potential strong resistance will be double from the lowest point.  The subsequent resistance will be every 5% of the double of the lowest point.

3) Bull market definition – continuous 3 white bar in monthly chart and rise more than 30%
3a) Symptom of bull market

• Ignore bad news, sensitive to good news
• 10day MA has turned up
• Weekly candle has 2 up weeks
• 3 month MA has turned up

3b) Warning sign of weakening of bull market

• 3 days down continuous OR 4 days down in a 5 days trading week
• Index should not drop more than 2% a day from peak or 10% in 3 days

4) Bear market definition – continuous 3 black bar in monthly chart and drop more than 25%
4a & b) symptom and warning of bear market will be opposite of bull market

5) 10 days MA use to determine whether is the stock alive or dead for short term

Gold and Silver (19 Sep 15)

Gold
DT
Gold broke pwh and TL4.  Next resistance at TL3 and 1,155.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072 and 995

COT for Gold - Buying interest is not at extreme (>90) but still above 70 level, may go long if there is a trend reversal

Silver
DT
Silver broke pwh and TL4.  Inside bar of 24 Aug in weekly chart.
Next resistance at TL2.
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

COT for Silver - Similar to Gold, not at extreme (>90) but still above 70 level, may go long if there is a trend reversal 

Dollar Index broke range bound

Dollar Index broke range bound and 95.3 support, closed with outside day bar.  Weakness in short term as it closed below 95.3 for 2 days.  Resistance at TL2, TL5 and 95.3.  Support at 93.3 and TL4

Dollar Index buying interest is building up, can start to monitor major pairs after recent USD sell down

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 19 Sep 15

BDI had a strong rebound to 960 (18 Sep) from 818 (11 Sep)

Summary
Soft commodities closed lower, energy is mixed while most metals are trading higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• wheat
• Oats
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Silver
• Palladium (1)
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

 
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices short term support and resistance

After the major sell down between 17 and 25 Aug, most of the indices are trading sideways within the range between 21 to 25 Aug  of the sell down

Australia
DT
Broke lhf on wed but failed to hold.  Resisted by TL1 and supported by TL4, hovering around TL6
Potential resistance around 5,138, 5,266, 5,316 and 5,463
Potential support around 5,025, 4,833, 4,696 and 4,601

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Resisted by TL5 and supported by TL6
Potential resistance around 18,565, 19,092, 19,740 and 20,052
Potential support around 17,890, 17,328, 16,581 and 15,418

Hong Kong
DT
Range bound between 22,409 and 20,011
Potential resistance around 22,409, 23,969 and 24,892
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080, 20,011, 19,073 and 18,051

Hong Kong China H-Shares
DT
Broke lhf on Wed and closed above TL1. 10,182 remained to be strong resistance
Potential resistance around  10,182, 10,711, 11,080 and 11,366
Potential support around 9,658, 9,195, 8,637, 8,102 and 6,727

UK
DT
Continue to close above TL3 but failed to break new high and yet broke pwl.  Continue to be range bound.
Potential resistance around 6,125, 6,297, 6,429, 6,578 and 6,809
Potential support around  6,070, 6,010, 5,894 and 5,637

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Tested TL6 but failed to close above, sell down on Fri and closed above weekly Diff SL
Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147
Potential support around  9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216

India
DT
Broke lhf on weekly chart and closed above Trend DT channel.  Support will be at TL4 and 7,817
Potential resistance around  7,991, 8,085, 8,223 and 8,435
Potential support around 7,929, 7,812, 7,538 and 7,417

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
21 Sep, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Aug)

22 Sep, Tue

• Japan Holiday

23 Sep, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

24 Sep, Thu

• Singapore Holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Aug)

25 Sep, Fri

• India Holiday
• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Indices Performance Chart - 19 Sep 15

US and Asia continue to close higher while Europe closed mixed

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• Dow (1) (increased for 1st week)
• S&P (1) (no change)
• Nasdaq (1) (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (1) (decreased for 2nd week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT

US markets spike up when Fed Chair Yellen Speaks while dollar index slide on US interest rate decision remained the same.  Us markets back to consolidation range when closing

Dow
DT
Potential resistance around 16,503, 17,083, 17,271 and 17,500
Potential support around 16,246, 15,851, 15,376 and 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,973, 1,996, 2,028 and 2,045
Potential support around 1,930, 1,886, 1,820 and 1,737

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  4,347, 4,537, 4,640 and 4,682
Potential support around 4,271, 4,193, 4,089, 3,956 and 3,755

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,185, 1,213, 1,240 and 1,274
Potential support around 1,164, 1,137, 1,114 and 1,082

Dollar Index range bound

Dollar Index range bound between 95.3 and 96.3. 
Resistance at TL5 and 96.3, Support at 95.3, TL2 and TL4

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 12 Sep 15

BDI slipped lower from 875 (04 Sep) to 818 (11 Sep)

Summary
Commodities are mixed this week.
News of stronger El Nino start to surface again

• Met office: strongest El Nino since 1950 on the way

...potentially become one of the strongest events since 1950...

• Can this year's El Nino help fight California's drought?

...95 percent chance that a strong El Nino weather condition is forming in the Pacific Ocean and will continue through the winter...

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Sugar
• wheat
• Oats (1)
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Silver
• Palladium (1)
• Lumber (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average