EA Result (26 Jun 15)

Tuned Result (G3)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

Dollar Index Rebounded

Dollar Index rallied on Tue after testing support 93.3 and had little movement on next 3 days.  The current support is around 95.3.  On weekly chart, Dollar Index broke LHF and it may move to test trend line resistance

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 27 Jun 15

BDI closed at 823 on 26 Jun, up from 779 (19 Jun)

Summary
Grains, Coffee and sugar closed higher this week.  Wheat and corn closed higher around 10% this week.  Most metals and energy closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Sugar
• Orange Juice
• Copper
• Silver
• Palladium (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• Corn (From DT to Neutral)
• Cotton
• Up Trend
• Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Gap up and broke trend line resistance but failed to close above trend line resistance.  Supported by another trend line.  Overall look weak.
Potential resistance around 5,617, 5,705, 5,735 and 5,845
Potential support around 5,528, 5,463 and 5,400

Japan
UT.   Created new recent high on Tue with new Diff.  It also broke lhf in weekly chart.
Potential resistance around 20,900, 22,500^, 23,900^ and 25,000^
Potential support around 20,702, 20,402, 20,114 and 19,883
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
UT.  In weekly chart, broke lhf but closed below pwh and -ROC
Waiting to cover the gap between 2 and 8 Apr
Potential resistance around 27,262, 27,496 and 27,806
Potential support around 26,679, 25,571 and 25,193

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
Waiting to cover the gap between 2 and 8 Apr.
Potential resistance around 13,595, 14,047 and 14,513
Potential support around 13,021, 12,404 and 11,821

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral.
Potential resistance around 6,809, 6,949 and 7,047
Potential support around 6,661, 6,578 and 6,429

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Gap up, broke pwh but resisted by trend line
Potential resistance around 11,589, 11,774 and 11,893
Potential support around 11,363, 10,930 and 10,653

Singapore
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Broke pwh but closed with -ROC.  Resisted around 3,355 level
Potential resistance around 3,355 and 3,405
Potential support around 3,301, 3,263 and 3,216

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Tested upper trend channel and closed around the level.
May monitor to enter on retracement when break lhf
Potential resistance around 8,435 and 8,578
Potential support around 8,223, 7,929 and 7,817

Indices Performance Chart - 27 Jun 15

Most Europe markets continue to close higher while US and Asia closed lower, China A50 was down around 7% this week.  China A50 (CFD) was down by 24% from the recent peak at 26 May 15.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week), sharp decreased
• S&P (increased for 1st week), Sharp increased, highest since Dec 2011
• Russell (decreased for few weeks)

Neutral

• Dow (decreased for 2nd week), sharp decreased

 

US indices broke pwh (except DOW) and closed with a -ve ROC showing weakness .  In Daily Chart, new Diff is formed and all trade below Diff.  DOW, S&P and Russell tested resistance and retraced back to some form of support. 
I have added short short hedging positions.

EA Result (19 Jun 15)

Tuned Result (G3)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

Dollar Index continue to close lower

After US interest rate remained at 0.25%, US Dollar Index move lower and tested 93.3 support level.  This week US Dollar Index closed at 94.27

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

El Nino developing?

From past few months various reports from Singapore Newspaper and online talking El Nino maybe coming, once can start to monitor or trade small on edible commodities.

The reports are from The Straits Times.  All copyrights belong to their respective owners

Commodities Update - 20 Jun 15

BDI continue to go higher from 642 (12 Jun) to 779 (19 Jun).  This is a positive sign, hope the momentum can carry on.

Summary
Most commodities was mixed this week.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Copper
• Silver (1)
• Palladium
• Platinum

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica
• Sugar
• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Some of the indices had a good pull back worth to monitor for long while some just started a pull back, need to be caution on those if holding long positions

Some of the key events (SG Time):
22 Jun
Holiday China - Dragon Boat Festival
2200    US Existing Home Sales

23 Jun
0945  China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
1500-1600 French, German and Europe Manufacturing & Service PMI (Jun)
2030  US Core Durable Goods Orders
2200  US New Home Sales

24 Jun
2030  US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly UT.  Peak at mid of Mar.
Potential resistance around 5,617, 5,735 and 5,845
Potential support around 5,504, 5,457 and 5,400

Japan
UT.  Peak at end of May. Broke down from consolidation mode
Potential resistance around 20,262, 20,413 and 20,619
Potential support around 20,114, 19,973, 19,740 and 19,448

Hong Kong
UT.   Peak at end of Apr. Resisted by trend line
Potential resistance around 26,888, 27,262 and 27,806
Potential support around 26,388, 25,571 and 25,193

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT.  Peak at end of May.
Broke down from consolidation mode. Continue to go lower, this will cover the gap between 2 and 8 Apr.
Potential resistance around 13,595, 14,047 and 14,513
Potential support around 13,021, 12,404 and 11,821

UK
DT.  Peak at mid of Apr.  Resisted by trend line
Potential resistance around 6,736, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,578, 6,429 and 6,297

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT.  Peak at mid of Apr.
Potential resistance around 11,326, 11,471 and 11,893
Potential support around 10,930, 10,653 and 10,272

Singapore
Daily DT, Weekly UT.  Peak at mid of Apr.
Based on weekly chart, STI formed inside day, resisted by trend line
Potential resistance around 3,355 and 3,405
Potential support around 3,301, 3,263 and 3,216

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT.  Peak at beginning of Mar.
Potential resistance around 8435 and 8578
Potential support around 8,223, 7,958, 7,817 and 7,538

Indices Performance Chart - 20 Jun 15

US and most Europe markets continue to close higher this week while Asia closed lower, China A50 was down more than 10%.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 3rd week)

Neutral

• Dow (decreased for 1st week)

US indices broke pwh but closed below pwh except for Russell that closed above.  This week Russell made historic high.  On Daily chart, US rallied on Thu testing resistance and retreat back to trend line support. DOW created a outside day on a weekly chart,  potential of a new trend.  As long as it don't close below trend line support for 2-3 days, most likely US will continue to move higher.  One of the critical support will be May low.

EA Result (12 Jun 15)

Tuned Result (G3)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

Dollar Index continue to be volatile

US Dollar Index continue to be volatile and closed lower this week at 94.99.  Immediate support will be around 94.67, next important support will be around 93.3.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 13 Jun 15

BDI closed higher from 610 (05 Jun) to 642 (12 Jun)

Summary
Energy closed higher while most metals closed lower the rest are mixed

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Copper
• Silver
• Platinum

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica
• Sugar
• Palladium
• Orange Juice (1)

Up Trend

• Cotton
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices short term support and resistance

It will be a volatile week ahead due to 18 Jun (Thu) 0200 SG Time, FED Interest Rate Decision and Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking at 0230.
 
If fed decided to raise interest rate, short term is bad news for market.  In mid to long term, if economy is stable and picking up gradually,  corporate result are improving, job market continue to improve,  housing n spending continue to pick up,  inflation remain low, stock markets will continue to go higher.

I will reduce some of recently added long position.

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,617 and 5,751
Potential support around 5,500, 5,413 and 5,316

Japan
UT.  Broke down from consolidation mode
Potential resistance around 20,413, 20,619 and 20,900^
Potential support around 20,237, 20,114, 19,973, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
UT.   Broke down from consolidation mode
Potential resistance around 27,262, 27,974, 28,213 and 28,460
Potential support around 26,933, 26,681, 25,571 and 25,193

Hong Kong China H-Shares
UT. Still in consolidating mode between 14,916 and 13,686.  Breaking down, may see lowering to cover the gap between 2 and 8 Apr.
Potential resistance around 14,047, 14,513, 14,773 and 14,873
Potential support around 13,686, 13,021 and 12,404

UK
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,809, 6,949, and 7,047
Potential support around 6,710, 6,578 and 6,429

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 11,326, 11,471 and 11,893
Potential support around 10,930, 10,653 and 10,272

Singapore
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Based on weekly chart, STI look good if can break pwh and stay above
Potential resistance around 3,355 and 3,405
Potential support around 3,301, 3,263 and 3,216

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 8,127, 8,223 and 8,359
Potential support around 7,958, 7,817 and 7,538

Indices Performance Chart - 13 Jun 15

US and most Europe markets recovered this week while China A50 and HK closed lower.  STI pierce thru the channel support and recovered back to the channel .

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
• S&P (increased for 1st week), highest since 2012

Neutral

• Dow (increased for 3rd week), highest in 2015
• Russell (decreased for 2nd week)

Higher COT does not mean Index must goes up

US indices move broke pwl, tested various support on Tue.  On Wed, rebounded strongly and tested various resistance on Thur.  On Fri, it closed lower, DOW, S&P and Nasdaq look weak, more selling may come.  Looking at weekly chart, DOW and S&P closed with a doji, there will be more upside if can break pwh