BDI is yet to pick up, I will continue to goes small and slow when long
Wheat
Neutral, Long on 21 Apr, SL triggered on 24 Apr
Gasoline
UT, Add Long pos on 23 Apr
Long on 15 Apr, took partial on 20 Apr
Heating Oil
UT, Long on 23 Apr
Long on 10 Apr, closed on 20 Apr
Cotton
UT, will long on lhf break, COT picking up again
Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr, add pos on 14 Apr, closed on 20 Apr
Copper
UT, Will long on lhf 2ET, COT picking up
Coffee Arabica
DT, Long on 16 Apr, closed on 20 Apr
Long on 21 Apr
Palladium
DT, Short on 20 Apr, took partial on 22 Apr (testing Taos SL)
Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From UT to Neutral, No trade, wait for clearer sign
Silver
DT, Short on 14 Apr, add short pos on 20 Apr
Will close position if closed above Diff RL
Tuned Result (G2)
Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).
This week US Dollar broke pdl with 2ET, pwl, daily and weekly diff SL, symmetrical triangle and closed the week at 97.09
Outside Day also formed on Thu, in V3Go terminology mean potential start of a new trend. Dollar Index is on ut, therefore the downside will be limited
V3GO sentiment graphs also reflect various USD pairs, USD is weakening
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI still not showing any sign of picking up, remained low at 600 (24 Apr)
Summary
Coffee, Sugar & Energy are trading higher this week while Metals trading lower despite Dollar Index is weakening.
COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Cocoa
- Coffee Arabica (1)
- Corn (From Neutral to DT)
- Wheat (1) (From Neutral to DT)
- Oats
- Soybean Meal (1)
- Orange Juice (1)
- Rough Rice (1)
- Lumber (1)
- Natural Gas (1) (From Neutral to DT)
- Silver
- Gold
Neutral
Up Trend
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Australia broke lhf, diff rl and rallied up to breaking trend resistance, next week may see breaking recent high. UK, HK and HK China H-shares are in consolidation mode. Germany strong support region is around 11,600 region. Breaking the strong support, next support level will be around 11,280 region.
Europe closed mixed this week. China A50 and India closed lower while HK and US markets closed higher
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend
- Dow (increased for 1st week)
- Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
- S&P (decreased for 3rd week)
- Russell (decreased for 3rd week)
Nasdaq is the star performer this week (up by more than 2%) and broke recent high. Nasdaq and S&P broke Diff RL. Trend resistance this week while DOW and Russell still within Diff Region. DOW is trying to break trend resistance. May monitor Russell, in consolidation mode for past 6 weeks.
My hedge position on Nasdaq and S&P SL was triggered. I have added Long pos on Tue when broke lhf. No add on position on Thu when broke lhf.
Wheat
From UT to Neutral, Will long lhf 2ET
New Diff formed, another trend supported tested
If closed below trend support, will not long
Gasoline
UT, Long on 15 Apr
Will add pos when break lhf
Long on 10 Apr, took profit on 13 Apr
Heating Oil
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos when break lhf
Will close if break Diff SL
Cotton
Will not monitor further, broke trend support, COT lesser buying interest
Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr, add pos on 14 Apr
Will close pos of break pdl
Copper
UT, Will long on lhf 2ET
COT picking up
Coffee Arabica
DT, Long on 16 Apr, took partial on 17 Apr when trend resistance is tested
if unable to stay above trend resistance, will close all position
Palladium
DT, Long on 10 Apr, closed on 14 Apr when broke pdl
Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From DT to UT, Long on 10 Apr, closed on 17 Apr when Diff RL is tested and broke pdl
Silver
DT, Short on 14 Apr
Will close position if closed above Diff RL
Tuned Result (G2)
Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).
Dollar Index closed lower this week to 97.71 from 99.6.
Dollar Index moving within symmetrical triangle, the range is getting smaller and watch for break out or break down
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI still remained low at 597 (17 Apr)
Summary
More commodities are trading higher this week due to USD weakening. Energy and Coffee Sugar are the better performer this week, up between 1-8%.
COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Cocoa
- Sugar Raw
- Coffee Arabica (1)
- Soybean Meal (1)
- Orange Juice (1)
- Rough Rice (1)
- Lumber (1)
Neutral
- Corn
- Wheat (1) (UT to Neutral)
- Natural Gas (1) (DT to Neutral)
Up Trend
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
I will be watching Nikkei and Dax more closely. Nikkie had tested trend channel support while Dax going to test. Next support will be 50MA. Till date Dax had pullback around 6% from the recent peak.
After new high last week, this week most markets closed lower between 1 to 5% except for China (A50 and SSEC) up more than 6%.
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend
- Dow (decreased for 2nd week)
- Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
- S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
- Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
DOW and S&P tested the trend resistance and failed to stay above. A new Diff was formed. On Fri US markets broke pdl and Diff SL during the sell down, this result in -ve ROC on weekly chart. Do watch out for US markets, if break pwl will bring more selling. 1st support will be recent 3 weeks low, 2nd support will be weekly chart trend support or 50MA.
Long pos was added on wed when broke lhf and took partial on Thu. Hedge positions was triggered on Fri when broke pdl and closed all the positions added recently.
Wheat
From Neutral to UT, Long LHF 1ET
New Diff formed, if closed below trend support, will not long.
Gasoline
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos on next break on LHF if break Diff RL
Heating Oil
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos on next break on LHF if break Diff RL
Cotton
UT, Will wait for trend support tested and enter on next LHF
Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr
New Diff formed, trade within Diff
Coffee Arabica
DT, Will wait for trend support tested and enter on next LHF
Palladium
DT, Long on 10 Apr LHF 2ET
Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From DT to UT, Long on 10 Apr
Trade above daily and weekly Diff RL
Rough Rice
DT, waiting for clearer sign before long
Broke daily and weekly Diff SL as well as short term trend support
Will only trade on LHF 2ET
Lumber
DT, just monitor since COT above 90
Broke down ascending triangle, closed below new Diff
Silver
DT, will short on hlf 2ET
Trading within new Diff. Broke support (16.68). COT turning down
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