Potential Trade (28 Mar 15)

Gasoline
UT, Long on 18 Mar and 23 Mar, took partial on 26 Mar and closed all on 27 Mar
New Diff formed and closed below, wait to break LHF
If closed below trend support, will not trade

Palladium
DT, Long on 18 Mar, SL triggered on 27 Mar
Broke trend support, wait to test next strong support level around 700 region before entering on LHF

Heating Oil 
UT, Long on 23 Mar, break lhf 
Trading above Diff, add position on next LHF break
Will not trade and cut loss if goes below Diff SL

Cotton
From Neutral to UT, plan to long
COT is picking up but yet to hit above 90
Trading below Diff SL.  Wait for next break on LHF or above Diff RL

Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK) (3)
From UT to DT, plan to long
wait to break LHF and Diff RL
if can test trend support and rebound will be a better trade

Oats
DT, plan to long
COT above 90, wait to break weekly LHF and weekly Diff RL before entering a trade

Rough Rice
DT, plan to long
COT above 90, consolidating for 2 months, monitoring for break out/down, hovering around Diff SL

Lumber
DT, plan to long
COT above 90, potential ascending triangle, may try with short term trading if break weekly Diff RL

Silver
DT, plan to long
COT above 90, ascending Triangle, seem trying to break out but trading below weekly Diff, waiting for clearer signal

Legend

EA Result (27 Mar 15)

Tuned Result (G2)
There are some changes to the figures due to wrong calculation during compilation

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

Dollar Index continue to pull back

US Dollar further retreat to 97.52. 

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
This week most USD pairs movement did not move much.  Dollar index had corrected near to 6% two weeks ago.  May watch next week for potential movement.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA
 

Commodities Update - 28 Mar 15

BDI edge few points higher to 596 (27 Mar) from 591 (20 Mar)

Summary
Commodities are mixed this week.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Sugar Raw (1)
• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Oats (1)
• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Soybean Oil
• Orange Juice (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Platinum
• Palladium (From Neutral to DT)
• Gold

Neutral

• Oats (1) (From DT to Neutral)
• Palladium
• Silver (1)

Up Trend

• Cotton (From Neutral to UT)
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil (From Neutral to UT)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices and Diff

Below are some of the indices that I am monitoring
Most of them are more bearish except for Hong Kong and Singapore that move higher and hit into another resistance level
I will go slow unless there is a 2ET on LHF

Indices Performance Chart - 28 Mar 15

After hitting into resistance level, most markets are pulling back this week as much as 3%.

 

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

• Dow (decreased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
• S&P (sharp increased for 1st week)
• Russell (marginally increased for 1st week)

As per my sharing last week, this week need to be caution.  In daily chart, US markets broke pdl (previous day low).  US markets hit the week low on Thur and rebounded when tested the minor support.  On Fri, US markets closed with +ROC (close price > open price) while Russell and DOW broke pdh (previous day high).  US markets may have a  technical rebound before testing trend channel support or 50 MA (weekly).  Go slow for coming weeks until more clearer sign.

Added more hedge positions on Tue when broke pdl. Took partial on my hedge positions when broke pdh on Fri

Potential Trade (21 Mar 15)

Gasoline
Long on 18 Mar, took partial on 18 Mar
UT, above Diff, COT buying interest is picking up
Add when break LHF

 
Heating Oil
Short on 09 Mar, took partial on 16 Mar and closed on 18 Mar
NT (Neutral), above Diff, COT buying interest is picking up
Short term long when break LHF 

Palladium 
Long on 18 Mar, took partial on 18 Mar
DT, within Diff,  COT buying interest is picking up
Long small when break LHF and add when closed above Diff

Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)

From UT to DT, within Diff
Will enter if trend support is tested and break LHF or 2ET if trend support is not tested

Oats
DT, COT above 90, seem supported
Long when break weekly LHF, this will be 2ET and within weekly Diff

Rough Rice
DT, COT above 90, consolidating for 2 months, monitoring for breakout/down, hovering within Diff 

Lumber
DT, COT above 90, potential ascending triangle, may try short term trading if break above weekly Diff

Silver
COT above 90, ascending Triangle, trying to break out but trading below weekly Diff, wait for clearer sign

EA Result (20 Mar 15)

Tuned Result (G2)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

Dollar Index pull back

US Dollar pull back and closed at 98.17

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 21 Mar 15

BDI continue to go higher gradually from 562 (13 Mar) to 591 (20 Mar)

Summary
Commodities are mixed this week but COT show more commodities are in extreme buying interest level.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Corn
• Oats (1)
• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Soybean Oil
• Orange Juice (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Platinum
• Sugar Raw (1)
• Gold

Neutral

• Heating Oil
• Cotton
• Palladium
• Silver (1) (From DT to Neutral)

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Asia Indices Resistance and Support Level

I will be monitoring more closely and may take partial profit if hit into resistance level

ASX CFD

 HK China H-Shares CFD

 HK CFD

STI and HSI spot markets

FTSE China A50

Indices Performance Chart - 21 Mar 15

Most markets are trading higher this week  after FOMC statements.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

• Dow (increased for few weeks)
• Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  
 

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq had broke pwh (previous week high) but closed around resistance level. Russell had broke and create new high and approaching channel resistance.  STI and Hang Seng also hit around resistance level.  Need to be more caution next week.

Some of my hedge positions had triggered SL while had took some profit on earlier short.  I will hedge my positions if there is a break of HLF.

Potential Trade (14 Mar 15)

1) Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
This instrument is on UT.  On Fri, it closed around resistance area.  Either wait clearer signal before trading (preferred) or go for short term trade depend on Price Action

2) Palladium
This instrument trend is indecisive based on MA (50 Days Moving Average) while the channel show is on UT.  Current it seem supported.  I will enter small if break LHF

Potential Trade Outcome (07 Mar 15)

1) Gasoline
Gasoline create a fake break out and SL (stop loss) was triggered on the next day.  I will continue to monitor at those support level for potential entry

 

2) Raw Sugar
Raw Sugar had broke and closed below the support.  There is no trade as there is no 2ET yet.

3) Heating Oil
Heating Oil continue to go lower, I will be taking partial profit on the support and let the balance to ride the down trend if there is.