EA Result (23 Jan 15)

Tuned Result (G1)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning). 

Another new high for US Dollar Index

US Dollar hit a new recent high at 95.78 and closed slightly lower at 95.32.  USD continue to remain strong. 

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

 

 Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 24 Jan 15

BDI move back lower to 720 (23 Jan) from 741 (16 Jan)

Summary
Most precious metals are on UT in daily chart while most agriculture and energy commodities remained weak.

Trade I am in are

• None in commodities

   
Closed Trade

• Natural Gas (Entry on 07 Jan, CL on 20 Jan)

  
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:
UT

• Corn, Wheat
• Orange Juice
• Gold, Silver
• palladium (Neutral to UT)
• Platinum (Neutral to UT)
• Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK) (Neutral to UT) (3)

Neutral

• Sugar Raw (DT to Neutral)

DT

• Oats
• Lumber

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Sugar Raw (from neutral to DT)
• Coffee Arabica
• Oats (1)
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Gasoline
• Cotton (1)

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Corn, Wheat
• Platinum

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 24 Jan 15

Markets closed higher between 1 to 6% this week except for Switzerland.  Among the US indices, Nasdaq is the best performer.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend

• Dow (increased for 2nd week)
• Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
• S&P (increased for 2nd week)
• Russell (increased for 3rd week)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Nasdaq and S&P managed to break pwh but only Nasdaq managed to close above pwh.  Dow and Russell closed with a inside day, direction still unclear.

Based on CMC, Russell (US Small Cap 2000) is moving in ranges or consolidating between 1082 and 1213 for 10 months (Since early Mar 2014), possible of explosive movement coming if manage to break and closed above 1213 for 2 to 3 weeks.  If markets sentiment is good and manage to break 2 weeks high, I will enter small trade using break LHF on weekly chart.  

 

EA Result (16 Jan 15)

Tuned Result (G1)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning). 

US Dollar Index new high again this week

US Dollar started off with a gaped down and subsequently broke pdh and trade higher closed at 93.05 for the week. 

V3Go Sentiment Graph 

Trader sentiment continue to favor USD to go higher

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 16 Jan 15

BDI move slightly higher from 709 (09 Jan) to 741 (16 Jan)

Summary
More commodities trend are changing to UT higher despite stronger USD. COT also show sign of more buying interest.  Worth to start monitoring them again.

Trade I am in are

• Natural Gas (Entry on 07 Jan)

Closed Trade

• Corn (Entry on 09 Jan, SL triggered on 12 Jan)
• Oats (Entry on 09 Jan 15, SL triggered on 12 Jan)
• Natural Gas (Entry on 07 Jan, took partial on 14 Jan)

  
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:
 
UT

• Corn, Wheat, Soybean Oil
• Orange Juice
• palladium (Neutral to UT)
• Platinum (Neutral to UT)
• US Cocoa (Neutral to UT)
• Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK) (Neutral to UT) (3)

Neutral

• Sugar Raw (DT to Neutral)

DT

• Soybeans (Neutral to DT)
• Coffee Robusta (3)
• Oats
• Lumber
• Cotton

COT

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Sugar Raw (from neutral to DT)
• Coffee Arabica
• Oats (1)
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice
• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Gasoline
• Copper (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn, Wheat
• Platinum

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 17 Jan 15

US markets are trading lower this week while Europe are trading higher.  China (Shanghai Composite) and India closed higher this week.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Neutral

• Dow (increased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
• S&P (increased for 1st week)
• Russell (increased for 2nd week, little changes for weeks)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US indices had tested Dec 2014 low this week this is the first support.  High possibility of US indices may break pdh in lhf next week (daily chart).  My strategy is I will go small if break, this will be the 1ET and there is a possibility may be a technical rebound to test 2nd support.

EA Result (10 Jan 15)

Tuned Result (G1)
After going thru 5 weeks trades, below is the result after the tuning.

 

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  The result is expected to be worse off than G1.

US Dollar Index continue to hit new high

US Dollar continue to go higher and closed at 92.18 for the week.  On daily chart, Dollar Index broke pdl (previous day low), reflect sign of possible weakness after the long run.

 

V3Go Sentiment Graph

AUDUSD and NZDUSD sentiment continue to show sign less bearish.

I had long NZDUSD on 08 Jan on 2ET in LHF and took partial profit on 09 Jan based on Taos RL (V3GO technique).

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 10 Jan 15

BDI continue to go lower to 709 (09 Jan) from 771 (02 Jan)

Summary
Commodities are mixed this week.  Coffee Arabica, Sugar Raw, Corn, Soybean Oil are trading higher despite USD is stronger than previous week.  Some of the commodities are changing trend, worth to monitor for possible trade but go small until the change of trend is confirmed

Trade I am in are

• Corn (Entry on 09 Jan)
• Natural Gas (Entry on 07 Jan)
• Oats (Entry on 09 Jan 15, SL 28 Nov 14)

   
Closed Trade

• Corn (Entry on 05 Jan, Closed on 07 Jan)

  
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:  

• UT
• Corn, Wheat, Soybean Oil
• Orange Juice
• palladium (Neutral to UT)

• Neutral
• US Cocoa, Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK) (2)
• Soybean (UT to Neutral)

• DT
• Coffee Arabica
• Oats
• Lumber
• Sugar Raw
• Cotton

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Sugar Raw (from neutral to DT)
• Coffee Arabica
• Oats
• Feeder Cattle
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Copper (1)
• Cotton
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn, Wheat

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

 

Indices Performance Chart - 10 Jan 15

Markets are trading mixed this week.  China A50 did a technical pull back around 3.5% this week, Hong Kong edge higher by 1% while US indices edge lower between 0.5 to 1%.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

• Dow (decreased for 2nd week)
• Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
• S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
• Russell (increased for 1st week, COT range bound for weeks)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
 

US indices testing recent low this week and recovered quite a bit. If next week manage to break this week high and close above will be a good sign to go long.  I will be careful as it may try to test the trend support line.  I will continue to long in if break pdh (previous day high) in lhf (lower high formation) for daily chart.

Commitments of Traders (30 Dec 2014)

This is an ad hoc posting due to delay in releasing COT data

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Sugar Raw (from neutral to DT)
• Coffee Arabica
• Oats
• Wheat
• Rough Rice (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Copper (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Orange Juice

 
Financial
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend

• Dow (decreased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (increased for few weeks)
• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 2nd week)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

V3Go Sentiment Graph

V3Go Sentiment Graph is part of V3Go technique that look at longer time frame (3 Months) vs to KSI (shorter time frame)

From the graphs (various pairs against USD), making a comparison between Dec 2013 to Jan 2014 against Dec 2014 and Jan 2015 period , it seem that the sentiment may repeat => USD may be weaken.  Magnitude may varies from last year, thus may wait for 2ET or higher, price action, stronger against USD to enter a trade (Short USD).

 

How to read the graph?

If the line in green zone, the pair is bullish candidate while red zone is bearish candidate. If the line is pointing upward, then is getting bullish while pointing downward is bearish, regardless of the zone.  For eg, NZDUSD is bearish candidate but the sentiment is getting bullish, thus can wait for signal such as 2ET etc to go long but small for a start.