Next update 10 Jan 2016

This blog shall take a 2 weeks break due to low trading volume which can be easily misleading and delay in COT data.  Next update will be on 10 Jan 2016.

Have a great holiday and 2016 year ahead

Dollar Index rallied on interest rate increased

Dollar Index broke lhf in weekly chart and rallied on Thur after US increased interest rate to 0.5%
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, TL6
Support at 98.3, TLU3, 97.0, TLD1, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 19 Dec 15

BDI closed below 500 again at 477 (18 Dec) from 522 (11 Dec).  Declining is due to off-season.

Summary
Most commodities closed mixed this week

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica
• Wheat
• Soybean Meal (1)
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Copper (1)
• Palladium (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Raw Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New diff created, broke lhf and Diff on Wed.
Potential resistance around  5,138, TLU2, TLD3, 5,266, 5,316
Potential support around TLU3, 5,025, 4,866, 4,833, TLD1, 4,696

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Closed with Outside day on weekly chart and daily chart.  This movement had shook out some of the weak holder for long and short.
Potential resistance around 19,092, 19,740, 20,052, TLD1
Potential support around 18,565, TLU2, 17,890, 17,328

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Mon open lower but trade above op, trading higher for subsequent days.  Managed to over come and trade above TLD2 but resisted by TLD4.  Need to close above TLD4 for 2-3 days for upside to continue
Potential resistance around TLD4, 22,409, 22,886, 23,300, TLU1
Potential support around  21,682, TLD2, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011, TLD1

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Movement is similiar to Hong Kong for the week.  Hong Kong China H-Shares had tested Sep low, as long as 9006 support can hold is a positive sign.
Potential resistance around    9,658, TLD1, TLD3, 10,182
Potential support around TLU2, TLD2, 9,195, 9,006, 8,637, 8,102

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Resisted by TLD1.  Mon almost but did not manage to test TLU1, may still try to test TLU1.
Potential resistance around 6,010, 6,070, 6,125, TLD1, TLU2, TLD2
Potential support around 5,894, TLU1, 5,637

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
New diff created.  Resisted at TLD2.  If can overcome to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days, can see more upside.
Potential resistance around 10,653, TLD2, 10,930, TLU2, TLU3, 11,147
Potential support around 10,189, 9,942, 9,679 TLU1, TLD1, 6,468

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Mon had tested Sep low.  If can close above TLU2 for 2-3 days, may see more upside.
Potential resistance around  TLD2, 7,817, 7,929, 7,991
Potential support around TLU2, 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
21 Dec, Mon

• No important data

22 Dec, Tue

• 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov)

23 Dec, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)   
• 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)  
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 USD New Home Sales (Nov)

24 Dec, Thu

• X'mas Eve
• Germany holiday
• US, Hong, Kong, France closed early

25 Dec, Fri

• Merry X'mas

Indices Performance Chart - 19 Dec 15

Asia and Europe closed the week higher while US edge slightly lower

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for few weeks)
• Russell (increased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

New Diff formed and broke lhf on Tue.  Tested resistance and closed with outside day on Thur.  Sold down and closed the week with -roc. 

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,271, TLU8, 17,600, TLD1, TLU4, TLU7,  17,829
Potential support around  17,083, 16,745, 16,503, 16,246

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,028, 2,045, 2,061, TLU3, 2,102
Potential support around  TLU4, TLD2, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930, TLD1

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,537, TLU4, 4,640, 4,682, TLU5, TLU8
Potential support around TLU1, TLU6, 4,347, 4,271, 4,193, TLD1

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  TLD1, 1,137, 1,164, TLU4, 1,185
Potential support around 1,114, TLU2, 1,082, TLD2, 1,049

Dollar Index continue to close lower

After forming outside day on weekly chart last week, US dollar index to continue to trade lower. On daily chart, Thur and Fri are inside day of Wed.  Dollar Index COT continue to show weakness
Resistance at 98.3, 99.8, TL6, 100.3
Support at 97.0, TL1, 96.3, TL8

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 12 Dec 15

BDI closed lower again from 563 (04 Dec) to 522 (11 Dec)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower despite USD weakening

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal (1)
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper (1)
• Palladium
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Coffee Arabica
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Raw Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
False break lhf on Mon and broke down again on Tue and broke 4 support lines
Potential resistance around TLU3, 5,025, 5,138, TLU2, TLD3
Potential support around 4,833, TLD1, TLD2, 4,696

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Similar to Australia with false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf on Tue.  COT for Nikkei is getting higher but yet to hit 70 level, may monitor more closely
Potential resistance around 19,092, 19,740, 20,052, TLD1
Potential support around 18,565, TLU2, 17,890, 17,328

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Similar to Australia with false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf on Tue.  TLU2 is the important support level to look out for.
Potential resistance around 21,682, TLD2, TLD4, 22,409, 22,886
Potential support around   21,080, TLU2, 20,011, TLD1

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Similiar to Australia with false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf and TLD2 on Tue.  9,006 is an important support level to monitor.
Potential resistance around  TLU2, TLD2, 9,658, TLD1, TLD3, 10,182
Potential support around   9,195, 9,006, 8,637, 8,102

UK
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke hlf on Mon, the actual selling step in on Tue and Fri.  Monitoring TLU1 for potential rebound.
Potential resistance around 6,010, 6,070, 6,125, TLD1, TLU2, TLD2
Potential support around 6,125, TLU1, 5,894, 5,637

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Similar to Australia with false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf and TLU2 on Tue.  New Diff is formed and closed below Diff SL on Fri.
Potential resistance around 10,653, TLD2, TLU2, TLU3, 10,930
Potential support around 10,189, 9,942, 9,679 TLU1, TLD1, 6,468

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Similar to Australia with false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf and TLU2 on Tue.  Trading sideway from Wed to Fri
Potential resistance around 7,682, TLU2, 7,817, TLD2, 7,929
Potential support around 7,538, 7,417, 7,216

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
14 Dec, Mon

• 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) 
• 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)

15 Dec, Tue

• 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)  
• 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)

16 Dec, Wed

• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct) 
• 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)  
• 2130 USD Building Permits (Nov) 

17 Dec, Thu

• 0300 USD FOMC Economic Projections
• 0300 USD FOMC Statement  
• 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0545 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec) 
• 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)  

18 Dec, Fri

• 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)

Indices Performance Chart - 12 Dec 15

Markets across the board closed lower between 2 to 6%

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 3rd week)
• Russell (decreased for 3rd week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

After failed to go higher for 2 weeks, US markets sell down between 2-4%
US made a false break lhf on Mon and broke hlf on Tue

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,271, 17,600, TLD1, TLU4, 17,829
Potential support around TLU8, 17,083, 16,503, 16,246

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,028, 2,045, 2,061, TLU3, 2,102
Potential support around  TLD2, 1,996, TLU4, 1,973, 1,930, TLD1

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,537, TLU4, 4,640, 4,682, TLU8, TLU5
Potential support around TLU1, 4,347, TLU6, 4,271, 4,193, TLD1

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  1,137, TLD1, 1,164, TLU4, 1,185
Potential support around 1,114, TLU2, 1,082, TLD2, 1,049

Dollar Index flushed down

Dollar Index flushed down broke 3 support level and the week around support level 98.3 after Draghi disappoint the market for not having more stimulus
Resistance at 98.3, 99.8, TL6, 100.3
Support at 97.0, TL1, 96.3, TL7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 05 Dec 15

BDI closed lower from 581 (27 Nov) to 563 (04 Dec)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher except Energy which go against to close lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal (1)
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Palladium
• Platinum (1)

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica

Up Trend

• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Raw Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New daily and weekly Diff formed, resisted by TLD3.
Potential resistance around TLD3, 5,266, 5,316, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, TLU2, 5,025, TLU3, TLD1

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
New daily and weekly Diff formed.  Broke down from range bound and broke weekly hlf.
Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052, TLD1, TLU3, 20,619
Potential support around 19,092, 18,565, TLU2, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff created, supported by daily and weekly diff.  Resisted by TLD4.  Need to stay above TLD4 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLD4, 22,409, 23,540, TLU1, 23,969
Potential support around TLD2, 21,682, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
New diff created and trade within diff.  Close below TLD2 for 2-3 days will see more downside.
Potential resistance around  TLD1, TLD3, 10,182, 10,711
Potential support around TLD2, 9,658, TLU2, 9,195, 8,637

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Weekly chart closed with outside day.  TLU2 will be the important support for more upside.  Close below TLU2 for 2-3 days, show it weak.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429, 6,489, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around TLD2, TLD1, TLU2, 6,125, 6,070

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Similiar to UK, closed with outside day on weekly chart.  If can continue to close above TLU3 for 2-3 days, may see more upside
Potential resistance around 10,930, 11,147, TLD3, 11,532
Potential support around TLD2, TLU3, TLU2, 10,653, 9,942

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Formed outside day on weekly chart.  TLU2 will be potential support for rebound, else may see going lower.
Potential resistance around 7,817, 7,929, 7,991, TLU1, 8,085, 8,223
Potential support around TLU2, 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
07 Dec, Mon

• 2300 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks    

08 Dec, Tue

• 1000 CNY Trade Balance (Nov)
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)

09 Dec, Wed

• 0150 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks    
• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Nov)

10 Dec, Thu

• 0400 NZD Interest Rate Decision
• 0400 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement 
• 0405 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks 
• 0830 AUD Employment Change (Nov)
• 1630 CHF Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2000 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

11 Dec, Fri

• 0200 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks    
• 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)  
• 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

12 Dec, Sat

• 1330 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)  

Indices Performance Chart - 04 Dec 15

US and Asia closed mixed but Europe closed lower after Draghi failed to meet market expectation to increase more stimulus

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
• Russell (decreased for 2nd week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  
 
Dow and S&P had formed a new Diff on Fri.  All closed with inside day on Fri.  On weekly chart, all formed an outside day.  Doji on Dow and S&P.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU5, 18,189, TLU6, 18,367
Potential support around 17,829, TLD1, 17,600, TLU4, 17,271

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 2,102, 2,116, TLD3, 2,129, 2,137
Potential support around  TLU3, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, TLD2

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,722, TLU7, TLU3
Potential support around TLU5, 4,682, 4,640, TLU8, TLU4, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  1,185, TLU1, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around 1,164, TLD1, 1,137

COT (Commitments of Traders)

Reminder, the information is as of 24 Nov 2015 (US TIme)

Indices  
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

 

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Soybean Meal (1)
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Palladium
• Platinum (1)

Neutral

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Wheat (1)
• Lumber

Up Trend 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Raw Sugar

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal 
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  

Dollar Index closed above 99.8

Dollar Index edge higher to close above resistance 99.8.
Resistance at 100.3
Support at 99.8, TL6, 98.4, 97.0, TL1

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA 

Commodities Update - 28 Nov 15

BDI rebound to close at 581 (27 Nov) from 498 (20 Nov)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed for this week

COT
** Due to the Federal holiday observed on 11 Nov 15, COT Data will be updated on 18/19 Nov 15 (SG Time)

Indices short term support and resistance

This coming Tue to Fri will have important data, especially on Tue and Fri

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD3 on Mon and retraced with new Diff formed.  ROC is getting larger (-> on clear direction) from Wed to Fri and hover around weekly Diff SL.
Potential resistance around 5,266, TLD3, 5,316, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, TLU2, 5,025, TLD2, TLD1

Japan
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Range bound since last week between 19,740 and 20,052.
Closed below TLU3 and 19,740 for 2-3 days will bring more selling in short term
Potential resistance around 20,052, TLD1, 20,619, 20,900
Potential support around TLU3, 19,740, 19,092, 18,565, 17,890

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD4 but failed to close above for more than 2 days, made a false break out on Thur and broke hlf on Fri to sell down
Potential resistance around TLD2, 22,409, TLD4, 23,540
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080, TLU2, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Tested TLD2 but failed to close above for more than 2 days and broke hlf 2ET on Fri
Potential resistance around  TLD1, TLD2, 10,182, 10,711, TLU1
Potential support around 9,658, TLU2, 9,195, 8,637

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke out from Symmetrical triangle and closed above.  If next week can continue to close above TLD2, will see more upside.
Potential resistance around 6,429, 6,489, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around TLD2, 6,297, TLD1, TLU2, 6,125, 6,070

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Retraced and broke lhf 2ET on Wed to continue the run.  Need to stay above 11,147 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 11,532, 11,774, 11,994
Potential support around 11,147, 10,930, TLD2, TLU3, 10,653

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Still in consolidation mode between 7,929 and 7,682.  Need to stay above TLU1 for 2-3 days for upside to continue.
Potential resistance around 7,929, TLU1, 7,991, 8,085, 8,223, TLD1
Potential support around 7,817, TLU2, 7,682, 7,538, 7,417, 7,216

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
30 Nov, Mon

• 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

01 Dec, Tue

• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  

02 Dec, Wed

• 0830 AUD GDP (YoY) (Q3) 
• 0830 AUD GDP (MoM) (Q3) 
• 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Nov)
• 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2150 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)  
• 2300 CAD Interest Rate Decision 

03 Dec, Thu

• 1730 GBP Services PMI (Nov)
• 2045 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

04 Dec, Fri

• 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 CAD Employment Change (Nov)
• 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Nov)