US Dollar Index Doji on weekly chart

US Dollar Index created new recent high and closed with a Doji waiting for confirmation signal.  Based on candlesticks pattern, suggesting a pull back soon.  US Dollar Index may still try to test
monthly high 89.71 before pulling back.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 29 Nov 14

BDI went accelerate lower from 1324 (21 Nov) to 1153 (28 Nov).

Summary
Most commodities are trading lower this week except for some, do monitor them for possible potential upside

Trade I am in are

•  Corn (Entry on 20 & 25 Nov)
•  Wheat (Entry on 21 & 25 Nov)
•  Palladium (Entry on 26 Nov)
•  Cotton (Entry on 26 Nov)

   
Closed Trade

• Sugar Raw (Entry on 19 Nov, Took partial on 25 Nov)
• Sugar Raw (Entry on 19 Nov, Closed on 28 Nov)
• Soybean meal (Entry on 21 Nov, Took partial on 25 Nov)
• Soybean meal (Entry on 21 Nov, Closed on 28 Nov)
• Natural Gas (Entry on 25 Nov, Closed with small loss on 27 Nov)
• Coffee Robusta (Entry on 24 Nov, Closed with small profit on 28 Nov)

  
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• UT
• Natural Gas, Coffee Arabica, Coffee Robusta (2), Soybean Meal, Corn, Wheat, Feeder Cattle
• Neutral
• Orange Juice
• DT
• Rough Rice, Palladium,  Lumber, Cotton

COT

Due to Thankgiving holiday, COT data will be delayed

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 29 Nov 14

Markets are mixed this week.  Most Europe markets are more positive than other region.  China A50 continue to rally up more than 8% this week while Hang Seng failed to follow through.

Due to Thankgiving holiday, COT data will be delayed

Nasdaq had tested the upper band resistance this week, while S&P and DOW still trying to test the band resistance.  Still looking forward for US markets to test band resistance. Russell tested recent resistance and retraced.  

US Dollar Index may create new high

This week US Dollar Index tested 2 weeks low on 17 Nov and tested new recent high and closed at daily resistance level.  US Dollar is strong and refuse to go lower for time being.  May test monthly high seem at 89.71 range.

 

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

 Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 22 Nov 14

BDI went higher this week from 1256 (14 Nov) to 1324 (21 Nov).

Summary
Most commodities are not moving much except for Orange juice and Lumber.  I have missed these 2 trades but will be waiting for LHF formation to enter.  Lumber will be tougher to trade due to huge gap.

Trade I am in are

• Corn (Entry on 20 Nov)
• Wheat (Entry on 21 Nov)
• Sugar Raw (Entry on 19 Nov)
• Soybean meal (Entry on 21 Nov)

   
Closed Trade

• Feeder Cattle (Entry on 04 Nov, closed partial on 18 Nov and closed all on20 Nov)
• Coffee Arabica (Entry on 12 Nov, closed partial on 17 Nov)
• Coffee Arabica (Entry on 18 Nov, closed on 18 Nov)
• Corn (Entry on 10 Nov, closed on 17 Nov)
• Wheat (Entry on 10 Nov, closed on 18 Nov)

  
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• UT
• Natural Gas
• Neutral
• Coffee Arabica, Coffee Robusta (2), Soybean Meal, Sugar Raw
• DT
• Rough Rice, Orange Juice, Lumber, Feeder Cattle
• Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum

COT

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Orange Juice (1)
• Copper
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cotton

Neutral

• Sugar Raw (from DT to neutral)
• Coffee Arabica

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

 

Indices Performance Chart - 22 Nov 14

Most markets are trading higher this week (except China A50 and Australia 200).  Europe markets outperform the Asia and US; up between  1 to 4%.

From COT report, US indices continue to show weakness especially S&P buying interest had sharp decreased.  Looking forward to Black Fri on 28 Nov and Cyber Mon on 01 Dec.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend

• Dow (decreased for few weeks)
• Nasdaq (decreased for few weeks)
• S&P (decreased for few weeks)

Neutral

• Russell (decreased for few weeks)

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
 
S&P and Nasdaq may be heading towards to the upper band resistance while DOW may be heading the inner upper band resistance.  Russell trade within range bound.

US Dollar Index retracement coming?

US Dollar Index trade range bound in daily chart and closed with a Doji this week. Short term waiting to see some retracement

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 15 Nov 14

BDI decline this week from 1437 (7 Nov) to 1256 (14 Nov).

Summary
Commodities was a mixed, one or two from each category have a performer;  Feeder Cattle, Orange Juice (may have bottom), Coffee, Natural Gas, Wheat and Corn.

Trade I am in are

•     Feeder Cattle (Entry on 04 Nov)
•     Coffee Arabica (Entry on 12 Nov)
•     Corn (Entry on 10 Nov)
•     Wheat (Entry on 10 Nov)   

Closed Trade

•     Feeder Cattle (Entry on 12 Nov, closed on 14 Nov)
•     Heating Oil (Entry on 07 Nov, closed partial on 10 & 11 Nov)
•     Palladium (Entry on 07 Nov, closed on 10 Nov)
•     Palladium (Entry on 12 Nov, SL triggered on 13 Nov)
•     Coffee Arabica (Entry on 12 Nov, closed partial on 14 Nov)
•     Corn (Entry on 10 Nov, closed partial on 13 Nov)
•     Wheat (Entry on 10 Nov, closed partial on 14 Nov)
•     Soybean meal (Entry on 11 Nov, closed partial on 12 & 14 Nov)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

•     Up Trend
•     Corn, Wheat, Natural Gas
•     Neutral
•     Coffee Robusta (2), Soybean Meal
•     Down Trend
•     Coffee Arabica, Rough Rice, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum

Those in DT will wait for 2ET
 
COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Coffee
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Copper
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Gold
• Orange Juice (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 15 Nov 14

Markets remained mixed this week.  Based on COT, US indices continue to show weakness, may pull back this coming week or early next week.  

Larry Williams finding typically US markets tend to trade higher (not always) before festival season.  Looking forward to Black Fri on 28 Nov and Cyber Mon on 01 Dec.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend

• Dow (decreased, this is 3rd week)
• Nasdaq (decreased for 3rd week)
• S&P (decreased for 3rd week)

Neutral

• Russell (few weeks)

US Indices continue to trade slightly higher this week (except for Russell).  Still holding on to long positions.

Watch out Dow as it had touch the inner channel resistance

US Dollar Index tested monthly resistance

US Dollar Index had tested monthly resistance (TAOS RL) and pull back.  Short term may see more retracement

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 

 

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

 

Commodities Update - 08 Nov 14

BDI edge higher this week to 1437 (07 Nov) from 1428 (31 Oct).

SummaryNatural Gas outperformed this week.  Grains was weak this week.

Trade I am in are

•     Feeder Cattle (Entry on 04 Nov)
•     Heating Oil (Entry on 07 Nov)
•     Palladium (Entry on 07 Nov)

Closed Trade

•     Natural Gas (Entry on 28 Oct, closed on 06 Nov)
•     Coffee (Entry on 03 Nov, SL triggered on 04 Nov)
•     Heating Oil (Entry on 03 Nov, SL triggered on 04 Nov)
•     Palladium (Entry on 03 Nov, SL triggered on 04 Nov)
•     Soybean Meal (Entry on 06 Nov, closed on 06 Nov)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• Natural Gas (Neutral)
• Coffee (UT), Rough Rice, Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Meal (DT)
• Palladium, Platinum, Silver, Copper (DT)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Coffee
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber
• Heating Oil
• Copper
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Gold
• Orange Juice (1) (Neutral to DT)

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)

Up Trend

• Coffee

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

 

Indices Performance Chart - 08 Nov 14

Indices Summary
Markets was a mixed this week.  Based on COT, US indices may pull back this coming week or next.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• Dow (Sharp decreased, this is 2nd week)
• Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
• S&P (decreased for 2nd week)

Neutral

• Russell (decreased for few weeks)

  

US Indices was mixed this week.  Had took partial profit.

 

US Dollar Index will be testing monthly resistance

US dollar index (weekly) had broke LHF and recent weekly resistance level.  Most likely will be testing monthly resistance level

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 
Precious metal continue to sell down and Crude remained weak

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 01 Nov 14

BDI continue to go higher closing 1428 (31 Oct) from 1192 (24 Oct).

Summary
Most grains continue to hedge higher and profit taking on Thu and Fri except for Rough Rice.  LHF formed, I will continue to watch.

Trade I am in are

•     Natural Gas (Entry on 28 Oct)

Closed Trade

•     Wheat (Entry on 28 Oct, closed on 30 Oct)
•     Soybean Meal (closed on 29 Oct)
•     Corn (Entry on 28 Oct, closed on 30 Oct)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• Natural Gas, Heating Oil (DT)
• Rough Rice, Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Meal (DT)
• Coffee (UT)
• Palladium, Platinum, Silver, Copper (DT)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Heating Oil
• Copper
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Silver (1) Copper
• Lumber

Neutral

• Orange Juice (1)

Up Trend

• Coffee

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average