DOW and Russell closed above support level

DOW (US 30) and Russell (US Small Cap 2000) pierce thru Taos SL and closed above it while S&P (US SPX 500) and Nasdaq (US Ndaq 100) pierce thru Taos SL and closed below it. I will not enter any trade till there is clearer signal.  Oct is another qtr reporting season, companies performance will dictate how the US markets going to move. 

Silver broke down

On my posting in Aug 2014, Silver may break in weeks, Silver broke down despite COT index hit extreme.  During that period, I am looking forward for Silver to go higher as COT is building up.

Most of the metals COT show buying interest are building up and yet price keep lowering.  One of the main reason for commodity weakness is due to strengthening of USD.  Monthly chart (50 SMA) show UT still intact.  I will wait for price action, 2ET before entering.

US Dollar Index continue to go higher

US Dollar Index is unstoppable, broke weekly resistance and continue to march higher

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Commodities Update - 27 Sep 14

BDI further decline to 1049 (26 Sep) from 1075 (19 Sep).

Commodities Update
Most commodities price continue to go lower due to stronger USD except for Feeder Cattle.  Sugar seem to have bottom and price picking up this week.  Advise to have
short term or intraday trade unless is in UT.

Trade I am in are

• Sugar (25 Sep, 2ET broke LHF)
• Feeder Cattle (17 Sep, broke LHF)
• Rough Rice (19 Sep, 2ET broke LHF)
• Natural Gas (23 Sep, 3ET broke LHF)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• Cotton (DT)
• Coffee (UT)
• Cocoa (UT)
• Oats (Neutral)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET


Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

•  Sugar (2) (2ET had formed, broke 2 weeks high)
•  Coffee
•  Soybeans (1)
•  Soybean Meal
•  Wheat
•  Rough Rice (1)
•  Cotton (1)
•  Gasoline
•  Heating Oil
•  Copper
•  Platinum
•  Palladium
•  Silver (1)
•  Gold
•  Copper

Neutral

•  Orange Juice
•  Oats
•  Lumber
•  Natural Gas (1)

Up Trend

•  Feeder Cattle
•  Cocoa

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 27 Sep 14

Oct is one of the more volatile month to trade.  This week US markets see-saw as much as 1% in a day.  Do trade with care and have SL (Stop Loss) in place.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

•  Russell (few weeks)
•  S&P (1st week)

DOW and Nasdaq buying interest continue to decrease.  Dealer, Asset Manager and Leveraged Fund show increased buying interest in S&P, rather unusual. 
Overall, the number of long and short positions had decreased on the 4 US indices.

Watch US Indices

Next 1 to 2 weeks will be interesting, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P formed outside days in weekly chart.  COT report show lesser buying interest.

This week broke previous week high and resistance level that may have triggered stop loss on sellers, as well as broke previous week low that may have triggered stop loss on buyers too.  It seem that Russell is forming ascending triangle, watch for potential rebound at trend line.

 

Below are the weekly charts for Dow, Nasdaq and S&P from Sep 2012 to Sep 2014
The effect of outside days

US Dollar Index testing resistance

US Dollar Index continue to test weekly and monthly resistance level.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Below is a weekly chart with 50 SMA 

Commodities Update - 20 Sep 14

BDI decline to 1075 (19 Sep) from 1181 (12 Sep).

Commodities Update
Most commodities price continue to go lower due to stronger USD except for Feeder Cattle and Cocoa .  Advise to have short term or intraday trade unless is in UT.

I will continue to have lesser trade on commodities and more on Forex and Indices
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• Cotton (DT),
• Coffee (UT),
• Orange Juice (UT)
• Feeder Cattle (UT)
• Cocoa (Neutral)

Most probably one from each category

• Rough Rice (DT), Wheat (DT)
• Natural Gas (DT), Gasoline (DT), Heating Oil (DT)
• Copper (DT), Silver (DT), Platinum (DT), Palladium (DT)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET


Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Corn
• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Wheat
• Rough Rice (1) (2ET formed but range bound within 12 Sep bar)
• Cotton (1)
• Natural Gas (1) (Consolidating for 3 weeks)
• Gasoline (1ET formed)
• Heating Oil
• Copper (1ET formed)
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Silver (1)
• Gold
• Copper

Neutral

• US Cocoa (1ET formed)

 
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Orange Juice (Trading range bound within 26 Aug bar, be careful)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
 

Indices Performance Chart - 20 Sep 14

After the FOMC conference in Jun 14, US, Europe and Japan markets closed higher while Hong Kong, China and Singapore closed lower.  After the Sep FOMC conference, so far it seem the markets have the same reaction.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Neutral
> Russell (few weeks)
DOW, S&P and Nasdaq buying interest had decreased

US Dollar Index testing monthly resistance level

US Dollar Index continue to test monthly resistance level.

My Post on 30 Aug 2014 (US Dollar Index hit resistance ) mentioned AUD and CAD show strength but this week both broke support and was weaken by 2-3%.  This may due to the weakness in commodities price.   Thus trading by Price-Action is a better strategy rather for short term. 


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Below is a weekly chart with 50 SMA

 

Commodities Update - 13 Sep 14

BDI continue to go up to 1181 (12 Sep) from 1155 (05 Sep).

Commodities Update
Most commodities price continue to go lower due to stronger USD.  Advise to have short term or intraday trade unless is in UT.

I will continue to have lesser trade on commodities and more on Forex and Indices
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

• Cotton (DT),
• Coffee (UT),
• Orange Juice (UT)
• Palladium (DT)
• Feeder Cattle (UT)
• Lumber (Neutral, Consolidating)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Sugar
• Corn
• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Wheat
• Rough Rice (1)  (1ET, broke 1 week high)
• Cotton (1)(2) (1ET, broke 2 weeks high)
• Natural Gas (1)
• Heating Oil
• Platinum
• Palladium 
• Silver 
• Gold
• Copper

Neutral
None

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Orange Juice (Consolidating)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 13 Sep 14

Most of the markets closed lower this week except for Nikkei rally 1.8% due to weakening of DollarYen

My last week post on "US Indices may break LHF", Russell and Nasdaq broke LHF on Mon (8 Sep) and Russell stop loss was triggered on Wed (10 Sep).  Dow did not manage to break and continue to form LHF.  S&P and Russell broke LHF on Thu (11 Sep) and due to overall weak market sentiment I did not enter the trade.  After consolidating for about 2 weeks, bigger movement may be coming soon.  Based on COT, expecting more positive markets sentiment.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

• Dow (1St week)
• S&P (3rd week)
• Nasdaq (slight decrease for 2 weeks)

Neutral

• Russell (> 3 weeks)

DOW buying interest had slight increased after 2 consecutive weeks of sharp decline.

Client Sentiment Dashboard (Provided by CMC Platform)

US Indices may break LHF – Watch for it

US Indices formed LHF this week, monitoring to add or long new position if break.  I will not trade 4 of them.  More interested with S&P (US SPX 500) and Nasdaq (US NDAQ 100).  May consider to long Russell (US Small Cap 2000) too but is a DT in daily chart, will goes small unless can break the strong resistance.
Looking for short term trade as most of them will be testing the channel resistance.