US Markets 11 Jan 25

 The US market broke consolidation support and closed lower.

BDI closed at 1,048 (10 Jan)

Harpex closed at 2,052 (10 Jan)

CDFI closed at 838.75 (10 Jan)

CCFI closed at 1,560.87 (10 Jan)

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher. 

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• US and China GDP 
• US and UK retail sales

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Jan, Mon

• Japan on holiday

14 Jan, Tue

• 2100 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)

15 Jan, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 0900 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

17 Jan, Fri

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)  
• 2130 US Housing Starts (Dec)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher, tested TLU2 and 109.7 resistance, and closed below the resistance.
Resistance at TLU2, 109.7, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Dec 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,167 (06 Dec) to 1,051 (13 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 2,043 (06 Dec) to 2,045(13 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 934.39 (06 Dec) to 892.25 (13 Dec)

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,465.16 (06 Dec) to 1,486.06 (13 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Rough Rice
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 14 Dec 24

The US market closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed higher and created a historic high.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher. 

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data by multiple countries
• China, the US, Japan, and the UK Interest rate decisions

I will take a break; this update will be the last for 2024. 

The next update will resume on 11 Jan 2025.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Dec, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Dec)  
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)  

17 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1500 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Oct)
• 1800 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Nov)

18 Dec, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)  
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)

20 Dec, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA