US Markets 03 May 25

The US market closed higher. The S&P and Nasdaq broke and closed above the consolidating resistance level.

While CDFI and CCFI continued to close higher, BDI reversed to close higher, and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed in the consolidated range.

Watch out for

• the US and the UK interest rate decisions
• Services PMI data from multiple countries
• Japan's short trading week

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431, 22,154

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 May, Mon

• Japan, China, the UK and Hong Kong are on holiday.
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

06 May, Tue

• Japan on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Apr)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)

07 May, Wed

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 May, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 May, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Apr)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Apr)
• 1640 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Commodities Update 03 May 25

BDI continued to close higher from 1,373 (25 Apr) to 1,421 (02 May)

Harpex continued to close lower from 2,100 (25 Apr) to 2,072 (02 May)

CDFI closed higher from 959.83 (25 Apr) to 968.62 (30 Apr)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,122.4 (25 Apr) to 1,121.08 (30 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Sugar
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Heating Oil
• Platinum
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed within the consolidated range.
Resistance at 100.3, 102.3
Support at 99.8, 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 26 Apr 25

The US market closed higher while consolidating. The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart. 

While CDFI and CCFI continued to close higher, BDI reversed to close higher, and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.

Watch out for

• Short trading week for China
• GDP and PMI data from multiple countries
• Japan Interest Rate Decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Apr, Mon

• No important data

29 Apr, Tue

• Japan on holiday
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Mar) 
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)

30 Apr, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q1)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Apr) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 May, Thu

• China, Hong Kong, Germany, and Switzerland are on holiday
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

02 May, Fri

• China is on holiday
• 0930 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Commodities Update 25 Apr 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,261 (17 Apr) to 1,373 (25 Apr)

Harpex reversed to close lower from 2,110 (18 Apr) to 2,100 (25 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 927.22 (18 Apr) to 959.83 (25 Apr)

CCFI closed higher from 1,110.94 (18 Apr) to 1,122.4 (25 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Sugar
• Rough Rice
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Platinum
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index rebounded

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA