US Markets 05 Apr 25

The US market broke the consolidation support and slumped.

While Harpex and CDFI closed higher, BDI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.

Watch out for

• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• CPI data by China and US
• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103, 5,338,5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542, 19,264, 19,986

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Apr, Mon

• None

08 Apr, Tue

• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar)

09 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

• 11 Apr, Fri
• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)  

Commodities Update 05 Apr 25

BDI continued to close lower from 1,602 (28 Mar) to 1,489 (04-Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,076 (28 Mar) to 2,082 (04-Apr)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,047.77 (28 Mar) to 1,053.11 (03-Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,111.71 (28 Mar) to 1,102.71 (03-Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index broke consolidation support

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.
Resistance at TLU1, 103.6, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 29 Mar 25

The US market closed lower. On the weekly chart, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an outside day.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 

Watch out for

• Australia Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Mar, Mon

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Mar)

01 Apr, Tue

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)

02 Apr, Wed

• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Apr, Thu

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Mar)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

04 Apr, Fri

• Hong Kong and China on holiday
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)
• 2325 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Commodities Update 29 Mar 2025

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,643 (21 Mar) to 1,602 (28 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,075 (21 Mar) to 2,076 (28 Mar)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,070.72 (21 Mar) to 1,047.77 (28 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,147.76 (21 Mar) to 1,111.71  (28 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• Soybean Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA