Sunday, August 16, 2015

Soft Commodity

Recently one of my friend shared with me when she attended a talk .  The speaker mentioned about trading opportunities with soft commodities that been in bear for years. When Fed start to raised rates, this could be their bottom.  Thus this posting is do an overview and follow with a plan if the opportunity do come by.  In fact El Nino will also causes soft commodities production to be lower resulting in high price too.

Break out of symmetrical triangle in Jun and break down. 345 will be an important support level.  Closing below this level for 2-3 days will see more selling.  COT buying interest is building up, more in favour to long

Forming descending triangle since Aug 2014.  Immediate support at 485, next support around 465.  COT buying interest is building up, more in
favour to long

Coffee Arabica
In UT, retracement support will be TL2 and TL1.

Sugar Raw
Falling Wedge (TL1 and TL2) and COT buying interest is building up, more in flavor to long.  May go long if can break out of TL2 with confirmation signal.  May use V3Go break on lhf to build up small position and SL will be -1(v) of TL1.

Rough Rice
Trading within UT channel.  If closed 3 days below 10 SMA, get out first.

May go long if break out of TL1 with confirmation signal.  COT interest is near to all time high.

Break out and pull back near to 2010 low.  920 will be an important level for recent low.  COT buying interest is getting lower, not in
favour to go long.

Soybean Meal
COT buying interest is below 10, will not go long until COT buying interest is building up again

Soybean Oil
Trade within DT channel.  Tested recent support at 29.27, if unable to hold expect more selling. 

US Cocoa
If unable to hold 3012 strong support, may test 2678.  COT buying interest is building up, will only long if there is a signal and trade above 3012 level.

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