One of the contributing factor could be seasonal effect, Lunar New Year is on Feb and China factory will be shutting down for about 2 weeks, thus shipping is slowing down. Where as last year (2014) which is at end of Jan. Another contributing factor could be crude oil, as I came across some reports mentioned that traders used supertanker as crude storage and wait for the higher price to sell off. Thus this also meant crude supply is more than demand.
BDI will need to pick up again by 3rd or 4th week of Feb if the economy is back on track to grow.
Summary
This week most energy commodities closed higher on Fri closing, while other commodities are either weak or mixed.
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:
UT
- Corn, Wheat
- Orange Juice
- Gold, Silver
- palladium
- Platinum
- Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK) (3)
Neutral
- Sugar Raw
DT
- Oats
- Lumber
- Cotton
COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Cocoa
- Sugar Raw
- Coffee Arabica
- Oats (1)
- Soybeans
- Soybean Oil
- Soybean Meal
- Corn (From UT to DT)
- Wheat (From UT to DT)
- Feeder Cattle
- Rough Rice (1)
- Lumber (1)
- Natural Gas (1)
- Copper (1)
- Cotton (1)
Neutral
- Palladium
Up Trend
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Crude
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
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